Japon: une analyse d’UBS sur les actions européennes

Pour UBS, les secteurs les plus affectés sont la réassurance, l’énergie et le luxe.

« A tragedy for Japan. Japan on Friday suffered a horrific earthquake followed by a Tsunami that has resulted in an enormous loss of life and significant damage to the country’s infrastructure. First and most importantly of all, this is a human tragedy.

The aftermath The disaster has brought significant disruption to Japan with power supply and the manufacturing base both being affected. The consequence of these events on the nuclear sector is also important and has included the closure of 12 nuclear plants with at least two reactors likely to close and the others potentially remaining offline for many months. The nuclear incidents could also trigger a renewed debate about nuclear safety, in Japan and wider globally.

Impact on European Utilities, among other sectors In the short term, we note that disruptions to nuclear power supply could see Japanese LNG demand increase. This would reduce global LNG oversupply, and support a recovery in European gas & power prices. A higher gas price is positive for European utilities, and in particular for those with gas sales based on oil indexed contracts, notably EON and GDF-Suez (both Neutral rated). However, with 85% of nuclear power generation and a strategy to grow in nuclear, this development could be negative for EDF in particular (EDF remains Buy rated, but removed from the UBS Key Calls – Europe list today).

Company exposures: reinsurers, oil & gas and also luxury in focus A number of other sectors have companies that will be likely impacted, including the Reinsurers (Swiss Re, Munich Re, Scor and Hannover Re), a number of Oil & Gas producers (Royal Dutch Shell and TOTAL) alongside many of the Luxury companies (Hermès and Bulgari). »

Les commentaires sont fermés.