Accord européen: on gagne du temps-BAML

Les analyses sont partagées après l’accord de dernière minute trouvé entre dirigeants européens (on peut d’ailleurs relire le déroulé des événements la nuit dernière sur le site du Wall Street Journal). Une impression ressort: les Européens ont gagné du temps (6 mois) et les détails manquent.

« After hours of negotiations Eurozone authorities came up with an agreement on bank recapitalisation and debt guarantees, private sector participation to the 2nd Greek package, and EFSF leverage. As well, Eurozone governments agreed Italian PM Berlusconi adjustment plan was “satisfactory’. On all these points, Eurozone governments tried somewhat to over deliver relative to expectations, but we would caution that implementation details, to be provided over the next 6 months, need to be watched carefully. The plan implicitly assumes that: 1/ Greece debt will by then be on a more sustainable path; 2/ Italy’s adjustment plan will be voted and will be enough to satisfy markets so that yields go down in Spain and Italy; 3/ “economic integration” can be interpreted by the market as deeper union. »

Pour le stratégiste taux de Bank of America Merrill Lynch, le diable sera sans doute dans les détails.

« Relative to our baseline scenario of aggressive bank recap, large first-loss piece insurance and less aggressive PSI in Greece, the market really has not received enough detail yet to make a call on EUR rates or spreads for now. A more than 50% notional haircut for private investors seems to have been agreed, but could imply mark-to-market losses in excess of that, and could trigger repricings of eg Portugal. A meaningful commitment from China to participate in a European SPIV could provide an upside surprise. With respect to the bank capital and liquidity schemes, rates markets will take their cue from equity and credit markets. With the schemes announced in line with consensus expectations, we may get little impulse on that front either. With many of the pertinent decisions postponed until November (details on EFSF leverage and Italian structural reform agenda), Bunds are likely going to trade with a positive tone until more details are published. For peripheral markets, France could benefit given the lack of news on the EFSF and the lower recap costs calculated by the ECB, while Spain could come under pressure relative to Italy, again based on the recap cost estimates. »