Capgemini: commentaires de brokers

Bank of America Merrill Lynch (« Neutral », 35 euros vs 30)

« Capgemini guided to FY’12 operating margin expansion, ahead of consensus expectation of 10bps contraction. We expect a majority of the margin expansion to come through in H1’12 given easy comparables due to Capgemini’s increased hiring in H1’11.
At current levels the stock trades at 11.9x / 10.6x our 2012E / 2013E adjusted EPS versus the sector at 10.5x / 9.6x. On an EV/EBITDA basis, the stock trades at 7.0x / 6.5x our 2012E /2013E adjusted EBITDA vs. the sector at 5.7x / 5.2x. We rate Capgemini a Neutral and raise our price objective to €35 (from €30) based on our revised estimates. »

Barclays Capital (« Equalweight »)

« Where is the leverage coming from?: Results mainly surprised on the strong 2H margin, which increased by 100bp to 8.4%. During the call, management argued that this was due to better pricing, utilisation and the pyramid. However, we find that 2/3 was driven by outsourcing, which is surprising given the stable nature of this division. For FY12, there is 60bp margin improvement coming from acquisition and CPM and Cap’s margin guidance is either conservative or structural pressure persists. For now we remain on the fence as the current valuation already discounts a recovery, which seems early to us. We therefore remain at 2-Equalweight. »

Bryan Garnier (« Buy », 36 euros vs 34)

« We increase our DCF-derived fair value to EUR36 from EUR34, based on higher mid-term growth and margin assumptions in our model. End 2011 and early 2012 trends bring us more confidence that Capgemini will be able to increase its op. margin this year. The sales dynamic remains positive (especially North America + emerging countries = est. 27% of sales) and we deem the group still have many operating levers, including industrialisation, offshoring and more efficiency. »

Citi (« Buy », 37 euros vs 34)

« …Capgemini’s results confirm our relatively bullish view on the service subsector within European technology. Looking in particular at the cyclical activities, discretionary spending looks to be more resilient. From a geographic perspective, North American dynamics are likely to lead, but excluding the Netherlands, we also see no signs of core Europe falling off a cliff. We update estimates to reflect results and guidance.
We raise our target price to €37 from €34 by applying a multiple of 13x (in line with the 3-year historical average) to our 2013E amortisationadjusted EPS. We note that Capgemini still trades on distressed EV/sales levels seen in 2008/2009 and we highlight the forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 5x indicates value in our view also in a broader services context. »

Cheuvreux (« Selected List », 42 euros vs 40)

« Following 2011 results, EPS est. up to EUR3.00 in 12E (vs. 2.88) and EUR3.25 in 13E (vs. 3.10). TP up from EUR40 to EUR42. Group transformation progressively enabling a greater resilience profile + structurally improving the EBITA margin, not yet discounted by market. In our sector list & French Selected List. »

Kepler (« Buy », 34 euros vs 33)

« The main focus of 2012 will be on margins. The group may also cautiously start making small- to mid-sized acquisitions again. Given that we are shooting for a net cash position over EUR600m end-2012, we see room for EUR150m-200m potential cash outflow. On the back of even better cash than expected and slightly more optimism on margins, we are adjusting our target price from EUR33 to EUR34. Buy. »

Oddo Securities (« Achat », 36 euros vs 34)

« La confirmation de la résilience de la top line, associée à l’activation des leviers structurels sur la profitabilité, nous conduit à relever nos hypothèses. Nous avons ainsi, en moyenne sur 2012-2013, relevé nos BNA de 7%. Sur ces bases, un ratio VE/EBIT toujours limité, à moins de 7x justifie le maintien de notre rating. A plus long terme, cette publication a permis de consolider deux piliers de l’investment case : 1/ la poursuite du levier opérationnel dans un environnement peu propice, suggérant que la transformation du modèle commence à payer et 2/ la reconstitution d’une trésorerie nette permettant d’accélérer cette transformation. Oc ajusté à 36 €. »

UBS (« Buy », 35 euros vs 30)

« Capgemini bettered FY 11 expectations, exiting 2011 with a strong 1.15x book-to-bill in Q4 in Project & Consulting. While it acknowledged lower visibility for H2 and flagged the risks from a weaker public sector and French elections, it characterised customers as cautious but not despondent: Bookings through January were ahead of plan. Nonetheless, the business was very skewed in Q4 with N America providing all of the growth and markets like the Benelux still very challenging and now proving more open to pureplay offshore competition. »

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