Que penser de la hausse des taux longs US

Spectaculaire! Depuis le début de la semaine, le rendement des bons du Trésor à 10 ans a pris près de 30 points de base. Un sursaut provoqué par les commentaires un peu plus positifs de la Fed sur la situation de l’économie américaine.

Pour les économistes d’UBS, cette remontée des taux longs marque le début d’un bear market « séculaire » pour les obligations américaines (passages en gras surlignés par moi):

« The jump in US Treasury yields this week marks a secular turning point for bond markets. We believe a long-term bear market has commenced. The source of the sell-off is clear—an improved and more durable global economic recovery, particularly in the US. Markets are beginning to challenge the Fed’s commitment through 2014 to its current accommodative policy stance. And based on the evidence and our forecasts, the Fed will lose the challenge. »

Conséquences pour la gestion de portefeuilles:

« We reduce our duration exposure by cutting investment-grade credit to underweight and emerging market hard currency bond allocations to neutral. In light of decreased cyclical risk, we also trim our overweight allocation to implied equity volatility. We re-allocate to shorter duration high-yield corporate and emerging market local currency bonds. We retain overweight allocations to global equities, corporate credit, real estate and selected commodities. Our underweights are concentrated in nominal and inflation-linked government bonds and cash. »

Concernant les actions, j’adjoins ce commentaire intéressant des stratégistes d’HSBC (remise en perspective historique, avec quelques recommandations sectorielles):

« Bond yields have ticked up in all the major markets and are beginning to focus investors’attention on the implications for equities if they rise further. We are firmly of the view that the impact on equities depends very much on the starting point. When bond yields are low, then equity and bond returns are usually positively correlated (higher bond yields are associated with rising equity markets). It is only when bond yields get high enough to threaten to choke off investment spending that they represent a serious threat to equities. We are nowhere near this point, in our view.
There are two caveats to this view, but neither changes our underlying stance. The first is that very sharp moves in bond yields can derail equities from any level – a 250 basis point increase in US bond yields in 1994 sticks in our memory. The second caveat is that with all sorts of unorthodox monetary policy measures in place, from successive doses of QE to the LTRO, there is always the possibility that this time it’s different. However, we are sticking to the common sense view that higher bond yields do not harm equities until they rise far enough to choke off investment.
We stress that we are not making a bond yield forecast. There are many reasons why the recent move might be reversed. But even if it is, with bond yields at generational lows, the issue of how higher bond yields will impact equities is likely to be a recurring theme now that the economic data has improved.
There is a definite cyclical tilt to sector returns in Europe when bond yields rise. IT, energy, materials and industrials are consistent outperformers, and consumer staples and healthcare tend to suffer. »

 

Une réflexion au sujet de « Que penser de la hausse des taux longs US »

  1. Tout à fait dans la logique de la progression de cette crise. Le rachat des T-Bonds par la FED en contrepartie des programmes de QE a atteint ses limites.
    Cette hausse des taux marque l’entrée dans la dernière phase de cette crise, la plus importante et la plus durable qui est celle de la contagion du secteur réel.
    Très intéressant, merci beaucoup !