Goldman Sachs neutre sur les matières premières, joue toujours le WTI et l’or

La chute de la volatilité des prix de nombreux actifs, dont les matières premières, est l’argument pour justifier une attitude plus neutre. L’envolée du cours de certaines matières, comme le pétrole, est sans doute aussi une occasion de prendre quelques bénéfices…

« Commodity volatility is exceptionally low
Commodity markets, unlike other financial markets, seem to have settled into spring doldrums. Not only have they been range bound since early March, but volatility has also declined further than most other markets, dropping to historical lows, which is remarkable given the tensions around Iran and the economic concerns over China. As volatility usually rises with the risk of a supply shock, we point to this low volatility as evidence that most of the recent rally in crude oil prices has been demand driven, reflecting the improved macro backdrop.
Shifting to neutral, but still see value in WTI and gold
Many commodity markets reached our near-term fundamentally based targets during 1Q12, such as copper, crude oil and soybeans, and we closed our long tactical trading recommendations in copper and Brent, taking a more neutral stance. The two markets that still stand out are WTI and gold, where we maintain our long recommendations. However, these recommendations are based not on improving fundamentals, but rather on relative value – WTI is expected to converge to Brent as logistical issues are resolved and gold is expected to converge to real interest rates.
More balanced risks reinforce neutral stance 
From a micro perspective, individual markets remain tight and finely balanced, which leaves them vulnerable to upside price risk, particularly for oil. In contrast, from a macro perspective, it will be very difficult for the market to continue to be surprised to the upside given the recent string of very positive macroeconomic surprises. At the same time, the strength in oil is now becoming a negative risk to the broader financial markets. The interpretation of Chinese macro data also poses risk in both directions. On net, we see the three key risks to commodity markets being China, the US macro environment and tensions in the Middle East. »

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