UBS émet un message de prudence sur les matières premières

Tout comme Goldman Sachs, les experts d’UBS ont récemment émis un message de prudence à l’égard des matières premières au cours du deuxième trimestre. 

Voici le résumé d’une étude assez complète sur l’ensemble des matières premières couvertes par l’équipe.

« Input: Capital flows, China rebalancing and credit stress
Our cautious call on commodities and miners has three elements: (1) capital flows accelerating out of emerging markets, tightening liquidity and hitting commodity demand; (2) China’s rebalancing weakens its intensity of commodity use; and (3) US’ cyclical slowdown may trigger credit stress, raising downside risks for miners. UBS’ mining team is perhaps more cautious on the outlook versus the house view.
Input: Evidence supports two out of the three elements so far
We see evidence relating to the first two elements: currencies like the Real and rupee are under pressure. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated Beijing’s intention not to stimulate private property. But, so far, US credit conditions remain benign and growth is yet to slow. Right now, it is a benign risk environment where miners are underperforming the S&P. We are watching US credit conditions for signs of escalating downside risks.
Output: Commodity preferences
On a three-month view, we like platinum, palladium (US recovery) and iron ore (tight supply); subdued price outlooks are forecast for aluminium, gold, zinc, thermal coal and uranium; and downside risk exists for copper, nickel and metcoal.
Output: Least preferred and most preferred
Our least preferred stocks are smaller and exposed to S.Africa/base metals/US coal/steel: Lonmin, Aquarius, Boliden, James River Coal, Norilsk Nickel, ThyssenKrupp and Rautaruukki. Our most preferred includes all Buy-rated special situations, Asian coal, and large cap gold: First Quantum, Xstrata, Glencore, Adaro, Alpha Natural Resources, Goldcorp and Barrick. Our Global Equities Structuring team has constructed most and least preferred baskets based on our lists accessible on Bloomberg tickers UBSLMNGL and UBSSMNGL, respectively. »

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Source: UBS, "Commodity Price Review", 28 mars 2012