L’argument peut tomber sous le sens, mais il est vrai que jusqu’ici, on avait plutôt tendance à prêter aux injections massive de liquidités par les banques centrales le premier rôle dans le rallye boursier. Pour les économistes et stratégistes d’UBS, Larry Hatheway et Ramin Nakisa, la solidité de la reprise américaine est sans doute devenu le point focal d’attention des investisseurs et leur guide en matière d’exposition aux actifs risqués.
« Global equity markets have paused as Q1 draws to a close. The fundamental matter of importance remains the sustainability of the global economic recovery, and above all the US recovery. As Fed Chairman Bernanke pointed out this week, improvements in the US labour market have not been matched by commensurate growth in final demand. That’s critical because a sustainable economic recovery is characterized by virtuous circles, with rising income and demand reinforcing one another. That’s what we and our US economics team expect, but markets will require validation. Next week the focus will be squarely on key US data, particularly the twin ISM releases and the employment report.To be sure, events in Europe and China will matter, but for other reasons. In Europe, avoiding a recurrence of sovereign and financial risk is about the most market participants can hope for. Greece remains on an unsustainable trajectory and jitters have re-emerged in Spain about its commitment to fiscal austerity and about the looming losses in its banking sector. As regards China, pessimism prevails in markets, as indicated by the recent underperformance of Chinese and emerging equity markets, industrial metals, and cyclical currencies such as the Australian dollar. China matters, therefore, because if our view of a bottoming Chinese business cycle is right, markets could be in for positive growth surprises.So despite the strong gains in global equity markets this year, we are not inclined to change our recommended stance. Markets are not likely to repeat the very strong gains of Q1, but equally a pause is likely to be temporary. We therefore maintain our existing asset allocation stance with overweight recommendations to global equities, high-yield credit, real estate and selected commodities, offset by underweight recommendations to nominal and inflation-linked government bonds as well as cash. »
Avec l’allocation d’actifs proposée par UBS: