Le prochain sommet de l’UE est (encore) présenté comme le « sommet de la dernière chance ». Bonne chance avec ça! Que faut-il en attendre. Les économistes et stratégistes d’Exane BNP Paribas ont fait un petit inventaire. Grosso modo: le marché risque de n’avoir aucune réaction aux annonces qui seront faites, car elles ont déjà été discutées en long, en large et en travers… L’un des enjeux est la combinaison d’avancées institutionnelles qui permettront davantage de mutualisation des dettes.

« What would be in line with market expectations?

A confirmation of ESM implementation on July 9th (as stated by the Eurogroup on June 21st), a reaffirmed commitment to implementation of the Fiscal Compact Treaty, and the presentation of a draft for a Growth pact would be in line with market expectations in our view. Each of these three topics has been widely discussed over the last few months and hence is unlikely to positively impact market sentiment.

What would be positive steps forward?

A softening of the EU stance on Greece would be positive as it would pave the way for a moratory on interest payments. A formal commitment from Eurozone leaders to start negotiations on a fiscal and political union (including a banking union) would pave the way for debate on mutualisationof debt. Although we do not expect any explicit commitment to mutualisation options in this Summit, Eurozone leaders could agree to set up a task force to explore Eurobills and the Debt Redemption Fund more seriously.

How do we expect the market to react?

A new framework to address the elevated bond yields seen across the periphery is vital for equity market stability. An absence of new policy initiatives to address rising sovereign borrowing costs risks leaving investors frustrated once again. Markets would be unlikely to quickly shrug off such disappointment. In contrast some specific recognition of the need to actively intervene, and to provide near term bond market stability would likely be very well received by markets – at this point it is less important whether such intervention is actioned via the ECB, the existing bailout funds or indeed new vehicles. »

Le document.