Plutôt que de chercher à créer de nouvelles gammes, les constructeurs automobiles devraient se focaliser sur la rationalisation de l’outil industriel et l’amélioration de leur profitabilité. Car 50% des modèles vendus en Europe le sont à perte. Ce sont quelques-unes des conclusions importantes tirées d’une étude publiée par Credit Suisse. Un point de vue aligné sur celui de certains constructeurs favorables à une réduction des coûts de production. Mais un point de vue qui la mérite d’éclairer certains des problèmes structurels des « généralistes » que sont PSA, Renault ou Fiat. A lire donc.
»60% of cars in Europe are sold by brands unable to deliver profit. Since 2002, €18bn has been removed from the value of Fiat, PSA and Renault. The current predicament is not solely the result of weaker end markets, but weak strategies leading to poor returns; today’s strategies seem equally questionable.
We put forward a roadmap to progress the debate on the industry’s future structure, and suggest actions to revive the industry. Drawing on the US experience, we believe the appointment of a car ‘tsar’ is crucial to a coordinated plan. Capacity cuts of 24% are required at Europe’s mass OEMs, if utilisation is to reach rates enjoyed in the US where 21% was removed.
While industry hopes rest on a recovery in H2, we expect volumes to fade. We cut our 2012/13 forecasts to reflect the deteriorating situation in Europe. We believe Peugeot is most at risk given we forecast cash consumption through H2 and 2013, with the risk compounded by refinancing requirements of >€1bn next year. Should our forecasts prove accurate, the French government may seek to assist Peugeot, in the absence of a co-ordinated European approach. In our opinion, such an intervention would lead to a ‘Big Bang’ where other governments look to support their OEMs. These actions are liable to serve domestic agendas at a cost to the broader industry.
Under a US-style restructuring, shareholder interests would likely be subordinated. We would avoid mass makers and continue to recommend premium names. BMW, VW and Daimler have outperformed Fiat, PSA and Renault by 267% since 2002, during which time the SXAE was up +18.8%. »
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