Changement d’humeur sur les marchés à l’égard de Carrefour? C’est ce qui semble ressortir après la publication des ventes du deuxième trimestre 2012.

Les analystes de Credit Suisse qualifient cette publication de « rassurante », d’autant qu’au cours d’une conférence téléphonique, le directeur financier de Carrefour se serait dit « à l’aise » avec les attentes du consensus pour le résultat d’exploitation (EBIT) du groupe sur l’ensemble de l’exercice (2,093 milliards d’euros d’après Thomson Reuters/IBES), ainsi que pour le premier semestre.

Voici leur commentaire complet après l’annonce des ventes du groupe:

« Within the details, Carrefour saw an improvement in food, particularly in France, thanks to the ‘Reset’ plan. The French hypermarket reported positive sales growth (restated for the calendar impact) for the first time since Q2 2010 (-2.9% in Q1 2012) and they saw an improvement of their price image since Q3 last year. Carrefour’s commitment to EDLP ["Every Day Low Price"] initiated almost a year ago is key to us. And more importantly, it seems that it has not been done at the expense of margin (better re-allocation of cash between badly executed promotion and underlying price cut, in our view). Non-food sales growth remained negative across the board but with a stabilisation in the trends. Although easier comps were helping, the company stated that the initiatives in revisiting the range of products were showing some results.

Overall, we think the Q2 sales and the tone of the conf. call were reassuring.

Moreover, we think that the comment about the consensus will release short term pressure on the share price. It may also allow the management to focus on the presentation of a recovery plan at the interims on 30th August. We think Carrefour warrant more of a recovery multiple today and may start to re-rate. Carrefour trades at a small discount to the sector (9.0x 2013E P/E vs. 10.0x for European av.). We remain Outperform. »