de la vigueur de la croissance: parce que contrairement à l’an dernier, il n’y a pas de rebond cyclique de l’activité (comme au Japon), le prix du pétrole est sensiblement plus élevé qu’il y a un an (+11% pour le WTI), les contraintes fiscales pèsent toujours autant sur l’activité et le désendettement des agents économiques privés reste d’actualité.
En gros, en l’absence de soutien prolongé de l’activité par les banques centrales et des budgets des pays disposant de marges de manoeuvre suffisantes, les perspectives de l’économie mondiale seraient sans doute encore plus dramatiques qu’elles ne le sont actuellement.
Dans ce contexte, les investisseurs sont dans une situation délicate: le rallye estivale n’est peut-être pas terminé au regard des annonces de la Fed et de la BCE. Mais il pourrait aussi être coupé dans son élan par le retour de difficultés bien connues: fragilités du système bancaire européen provoquées par les contraintes de financement qui pèsent sur plusieurs Etats de la zone euro; incertitudes sur la vigueur des économies émergentes (liées par le canal du commerce international aux pays « développés »); retour du débat sur le déficit public américain en pleine élection présidentielle.
En outre, la valorisation de nombreuses classes d’actifs a beaucoup monté ces 12 derniers mois (graphique).
Morgan Stanley fait plusieurs observations (passage en gras surlignés par moi):
« The risk rally is unlikely to continue without global growth improving, which looks doubtful near term. The central bank tailwind may last a little longer, pushing risk premiums down further and asset values higher. But such a move higher looks unsustainable, and likely to reverse, if the global growth doesn’t reverse its slowdown. Valuations are at or near the top of recent ranges, and while technicals on sentiment and positioning still tilt towards being constructive, that alone is insufficient to break through these ranges. Consequently, we wouldn’t add risk at this time, but a clear negative growth catalyst for selling does not appear imminent.
Credit for the carry, not much else. Credit remains our preferred asset class. But with yields at record lows, at least in the US, price appreciation is limited, leaving the coupon to provide most of the return. Regionally, European credit is weighed down by worse growth, but wider spreads and the potential for the ECB to lower peripheral yields means there is more overall upside than the US.
Equities waiting for better growth; maintain defensive bias. EPS forecasts for the US and Europe look too high, especially the former with fiscal cliff headwinds yet to be fully discounted. Europe could continue to re-rate higher on lower risk premiums, but sustainability depends on better growth. We like EM equities strategically, but outperformance may not materialize until 1Q13.
Range-bound Treasuries, bullish peripheries. We expect Treasuries to continue trading in their recent range — 1.4-1.8% for the 10y — irrespective of Fed action. Bunds would likely lose their safe-haven bid if the ECB proceeds with bond buying, while front-end Spanish and Italian yields could decline below 2%. EM local rates are likely pricing in too much rate cutting.
Tactically bullish EUR. We see further upside to the EUR on the back of ECB intervention. This is unlikely to last much into 1Q13, as slower growth and structural challenges return to the forefront. EM currencies look cheap on a fundamental basis and we expect outperformance.
A commodities mixed bag. Poor production and inventory numbers support higher agriculture prices, while the rates outlook and risk aversion continue to boost gold. Weak macro challenges Brent prices, but risks are to the upside for 2013. »
