Nombreux sont les investisseurs qui font part de leur inquiétude ou de leurs doutes quant à la perspective d’une prochaine sortie de crise. De l’avis de gros asset manager, celle-ci ne sera que longue et sans doute semée d’embuches. Pourtant, certains stratégistes continuent d’adopter la méthode Coué et se focalisent sur les rares bonnes nouvelles du moment. Ainsi ce commentaire de Nomura daté du 3 octobre:
« The QE3 candle is lit; the ECB’s backstop is gradually coming together despite a bit of forgivable Spanish prevaricating; ‘safehaven’ dollar flows have been reversing in an orderly fashion; gold is foretelling reflation by holding onto seven-month highs; US property markets are recovering, US PMI has bounded back well above breakeven (at 51.5); and China’s stimulus is about to start taking effect just as its imminent leadership transition also promises to clear an overhang of political uncertainty.
In short, the world continues to grope its way ‘out of the darkness’ pretty much in the equity- and risk-friendly fashion that we have been expecting since June. Next up, if stocks are to continue their advance, would be for 1) stronger US construction to help lift the monthly job data; 2) resilient US credit conditions to start translating into resurgent capex once presidential election-related policy uncertainties are cleared; and 3) China’s monetary and fiscal stimulus to start materializing in a boost to headline growth; and for all these factors to underpin an upturn in global corporate earnings forecasts. These variables now top our watch-list.
Indeed, reflecting the confidence-bolstering effect of firming US housing and the consumption-supportive boost to reflationary expectations from last month’s global monetary easing, today we upgrade the global Consumer Discretionary sector to Neutral from Underweight. This 2.0ppt increase is funded by shaving our Overweights in Financials and Tech – both of which outperformed in Q3 – each by 1.0ppt, leaving us still meaningfully Overweight both. (…)
The major potential macro stumbling block at this point, we think, is January’s looming US ‘Fiscal Cliff’ – more concrete risks of which will start to crystallize as the US presidential and congressional election outcomes grow clearer in the final approach to 6 November. Our baseline assumption for now, though, is that with the sting of last year’s watershed S&P downgrade still fresh, Washington will grind out a solution that avoids the nightmare scenario. »