Construire aujourd’hui un portefeuille de titres pour ses descendants et ne pas y mettre en proportion importante des actions constitue une erreur selon les stratégistes de JPMorgan.
Leur recommandation est même, pour un horizon d’investissement particulièrement long (plusieurs décennies) est d’être exposé à 75% aux actions (value, petites capitalisations boursières, titres à fort dividende, marchés émergents). Cette recommandation s’accompagne d’une note de prudence: il faut toujours faire attention au prix de revient des titres achetés. Comme le soulignent de nombreux investisseurs value, acheter un titre de qualité c’est bien, l’acheter à un prix fortement déprécié par rapport à sa valeur intrinsèque, c’est mieux.
Les passages en gras, considérés comme les plus intéressants, ont été surlignés par moi:
« Credit and equity markets continue to rally, with only minimal damage to bond markets. The rise in Global PMIs, both manufacturing and services, combined with better US jobs data, are giving greater confidence that world growth has bottomed and is set to rebound into Q4. Even with a rebound this quarter, the world economy is set to expand at a well below-par growth pace through the middle of next year. This should keep corporate earnings with little or no growth this quarter. As such, we do not expect much support for risk markets from economic or earnings releases over coming months, aside from reducing downside risk perceptions.
Our investment strategy remains instead based on medium-term value, which means to us still high risk premia on equities and credit, in the presence of falling market volatility and steadily improving familiarity with, if not fading concerns about, the world’s main event risks. Worries about the US fiscal cliff have not gone away and the Middle East remains on edge. But the coming leadership change in China is raising hopes of new stimulus measures, while the ECB planned OMTs have bought euro sovereigns some breathing space.
We thus remain comfortably long equities and credit versus government debt and cash, focusing on the higher-yielding credit sectors. Globally, we continue to like carry strategies in FX and fixed income. This week’s GMOS has our full set of recommendations. The criticism is raised frequently that massive liquidity injections are creating new asset prices. Bubbles are historically characterized by easy money, leverage and hugely overvalued markets. Money is surely super easy, but equity and risk premia are above historic means and surely above where they were at this point in past business cycles. In addition, there is little evidence of financial leverage, except for central banks, but these have no problems with liquidity.
Our regular readers will have noticed that we have become a lot more appreciative of value in asset allocation and less reliant on price and economic momentum, which have been the mainstay of our strategy in the past. This is both because momentum is not performing as well any more as a market signal and because valuation reached new extremes in the cycle, which gives it greater potency. The chart to the right shows the clean mean reversion in our measure of the US risk return trade off slope, and how this signals that risk premia will continue to come down in coming years.
The impact of value on investment decisions grows with the horizon over which one intends to hold a portfolio. In this context, many of you have asked what we would hold in a retirement fund, for ourselves, or our children. Even over the next 20 years, your entry points matter, so you should start with undervalued assets. You should focus on assets that produce good time diversification. That is, real assets, such as equities and real estate, that may have high short-term volatility, but that mean-revert well over time. Nominal assets, such as bonds, do not time-diversify as well. Over this horizon, we see more risk of inflation rising than deflation taking hold. Hence, we like inflation hedges in a portfolio, such as gold and oil, on top of equities.
Using round numbers, your long-term portfolio should hold some 75% in equities. Stock holdings should be concentrated on global Value, small caps, high-dividends, and EM, as each has shown superior long-term performance. Our normal preference is to allocate to passive funds, but in each of these categories, there is evidence that active managers can outperform. Outside of stocks, we like gold (inflation hedge), oil (commodity super cycle, if not peak oil), BB/BBB rated corporate debt, as well as EM local and external sovereign debt. Put some money in the world’s most undervalued currencies, largely Asian EM. »