Extrait de la dernière note de stratégie du courtier.
Ce tableau est accompagné du commentaire suivant (on renvoie le lecteur à un commentaire plus détaillé publié hier sur le blog). J’ai surligné les passages que je trouve plutôt intéressants:
« The consolidation of equity values continues. 2012 is characterised, above all, by the recovery of credit in trans-Atlantic markets. Our assessment of market behaviour in this period focuses upon this leading theme: the American market, the credit space and its equity derivative: financials. There are few indications of weakness here. Moreover, the macro-economic news flow is improving. At this stage the pick up is most evident in domestic, credit-constrained America. Europe is following America’s example: we are not witnessing the return of credit stress or of under-performance of banks. From a funding perspective Europe’s banks are back in business: they are de-leveraging by raising capital and selling assets. Their loan books are stabilising. It is the cyclical and commodity-sensitive space in which the recovery of higher risk, lower valued stocks is lagging.
• America’s election dominates this quarter. It should entail a reduction in investment uncertainty, at least to a degree. We expect the upward movement of equity values to resume before the election, and in all probability before the end of this month, because markets move quickly this year. Accordingly, we consider that the equity option is especially valuable at this time: downside risk to equity markets should be low. The SPX should not fall back below the September break-out area of 1400-1430 whilst upside potential is significant, from the perspective of both the short and longer term investor. The value of the equity option in Europe is outstanding this year because a valuation floor has been defined for distressed credit and equity value in the region which provides a platform for multi-year recovery. The Italian market best exemplifies the potential, thanks to the euro agenda. »