Union bancaire et mutualisation des dettes, situation de la Grèce, appel à l’aide de l’Espagne. Le menu du prochain sommet européen (18-19) est chargé. Et pourtant, nombreux sont les économistes et stratégistes à n’attendre que peu de progrès des dirigeants européens. La raison? La nouvelle salve d’assouplissement quantitatif de la BCE (OMT) devrait annihiler toute vélléité de faire avancer le « schmilblick« … Heureusement que le marché n’a pas d’anticipations trop élevées, car on pourrait s’offrir de belles semaines de volatilité par la suite…
En attendant, voici un commentaire d’Exane daté d’hier sur ce qu’il faut attendre du sommet.
« Banking union – supervision should take precedence over deposits and bank funds
Leaders at the EU summit will discuss the banking union and further fiscal integration. A decision on Greece is not guaranteed, and we do not expect Spain to ask for a full aid package. On the banking union, the focus will be on a common supervisory body. ECB president Draghi has already managed expectations by saying the supervisory body would only be operational in January 2014, while the legal framework should be set by January 2013. In our view, both risk delays. As an aside, it is worth noting that the power to pass new regulation would not be transferred to the ECB. Furthermore, we generally attach a low possibility to a common deposit scheme or banking rescue fund if legacy assets are included.
How to keep Greece in the Eurozone still has to be negotiated
Suggestions about how to achieve debt sustainability will accelerate again in the run-up to the summit. The ECB’s Mr Asmussen has already proposed a bond buyback scheme, and we believe Greece may need some form of OSI (official sector involvement). German finance minister Mr Schaeuble’s statement that Greece will not go bankrupt provided some relief in the market. However, at the same time German officials keep ruling out another haircut for Greece. This sounds like squaring the circle. Hence, negotiations over the next tranche (EUR31.5bn) may drag on bit longer, but we think EU leaders could send a somewhat encouraging message on Greece.
Suggestions for a eurozone budget have gained traction over the last few weeks
According to the Van Rompuy Interim Report, the rationale for this budget is to support countries that run into difficulties. This extra support should buy them time for structural reforms. We like the idea. A crucial factor would be that “donor” nations feel they have sufficient influence on how to spend the money, coupled with an efficient control mechanism and conditionality. Eurozone bills also feature in Van Rompuy’s report, which is to be discussed at the summit. Back in June, Mrs Merkel made it clear that she was firmly opposed to the recommendations at this juncture. Given that the election campaign in Germany has effectively started with Mr Steinbrueck announcing his candidacy, we believe she is unlikley to become more flexible on the topic. »