Deutsche Bank voit l’indice Stoxx 600 à 315 points fin 2013

Message très optimiste de la part de Deutsche Bank. La banque voit l’indice Stoxx 600 à 315 points fin 2013 et à 340 points fin 2014 (contre 276,13 points en clôture hier). Cette prévision s’appuie sur un scénario de croissance économique mondiale de 3,5% l’an prochain, une progression des bénéfices des entreprises de 6% et un mouvement de revalorisation (« re-rating ») des actions avec un P/E de 12,5x (contre 11x actuellement).

Source: Deutsche Bank

Dans cet environnement, les investisseurs devraient privilégier les valeurs cycliques aux défensives, selon la banque. La surperformance de 18% des cycliques en 2012 n’est, pour les stratégistes de Deutsche Bank, qu’une « mise en bouche ». Celle-ci profiteront d’une accélération de la croissance globale, d’une reprise des investissements et d’une améliration des conditions de crédit en Europe.

  • « We are positive on the outlook for equities due to an expected rebound in global growth to 3.5% in 2013, led by US growth of 2.5%.
  • In the euro area we expect the pace of deleveraging to slow, the credit impulse to rebound, and demand to surprise positively in H1 2013. We expect the stronger GDP growth to improve the fiscal outlook, and for euro area CDS spreads to tighten.
  • Three factors that could cause the cycle to turn are 1) an easing in balance sheet pressures related to the 2011 stress test targets, 2) a slowing in the pace of de-stocking in the euro area, and 3) a pick-up in global growth.
  • In 2012 US household spending was strong, particularly on durable goods and residential investment. If resolution of the fiscal cliff causes policy uncertainty to decline, we expect business capex growth to follow suit.
  • In EM we expect growth to pick-up after 18 months of adjustment, and for the recovery to regain traction as credit growth stabilizes, led by China.
  • We expect global growth of 3.5% to drive EPS growth of 6% for the Stoxx 600, and for the decline in euro area sovereign risks to cause the market to re-rate to 12.5x forward earnings. We expect the Stoxx 600 to rise to 315 by end-2013, and to 340 by end-2014.
  • Against this backdrop we believe we should continue to buy cyclicals. The 18% outperformance of cyclicals relative to defensives since our 2012 outlook note could be just the appetizer.
  • The global cyclicals will clearly benefit from a return to 3.5% global GDP growth and domestic cyclicals should re-rate on the back of a growth surprise in the Euro-area which might involve a recovery in both business capex and consumer spending.
  • A recovery in capex should benefit the revenues of the receivers and enhance the growth outlook of the spenders. In the next leg of the cyclical rally we need to put away those ideas that capex is bad.
  • We recommend overweights in banks, insurance, telecom, chemicals, media and construction, and underweights in food & beverages. We prefer value over growth and like the Italian market relative to the Swiss market.
  • Our 2013 strategy picks are Telecom Italia, Intesa SanPaolo, AXA, Adecco, JCDecaux, Hunting, BASF, SKF, Saint Gobain and Inchcape. »

Pour compléter, les vues par secteur avec les titres les plus et les moins préférés:

Source: Deutsche Bank

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