KBC: une augmentation de capital prélude à une revalorisation boursière

Les analystes ont été nombreux à saluer l’augmentation de capital de 1,25 milliard d’euros annoncée hier par le groupe bancaire belge KBC, ainsi que la décision de rembourser 3,45 milliards d’euros à l’Etat belge. La dilution potentielle est importante (10%), mais avec cette opération, le marché devrait désormais se focaliser davantage sur le redressement de la rentabilité et, éventuellement, le retour de cash aux actionnaires.

Quelques réactions d’analystes suite à cette annonce:

Kepler

« Despite dilution (around 13%), we think this deal massively clarifies the repayment of the state as it: 1) allows KBC to repay EUR4.67bn state support ahead of the EC deadline and; 2) clarifies the remaining repayment of state support (EUR2.3bn) after 2013 (which will now be executed in 7 tranches between 2014 and 2020). We think it will be hard for the market to assume further dilution beyond the book building. »

Citi

« KBC has taken a number of decisive capital steps, including a capital raise and a planned issuance of contingent capital. We believe these measures bring the company much closer to the 9% CT1 ratio target we have been writing about. We estimate 8.9% fully loaded Basel 3 common equity Tier 1 ratio (CET1R) by end-2013, in line with other European banks »

La banque estime que, sur la base d’une somme des parties, le titre KBC vaut 32,6 euros, et considère qu’un repli du titre après la période de placement des nouvelles actions constitue une opportunité à saisir.

Deutsche Bank

« KBC has announced this morning the acceleration of the repayment of the State aid with especially a E3bn repayment to Belgium next week, as well as an immediate capital increase by E1.25bn and the issuance of a CoCo of E0.75bn in 1Q13. While today’s announcements have a ~15% dilutive impact on EPS and c.5-10% dilutive impact on TBV per share, we think our long-term investment case on KBC still stands and continue to rate the shares Buy given the high RoTE, low valuation multiples and improved solvency. We adjust our model and lower our target price to E25 (from E27). Buy. »

Barclays

« With a €1.25bn equity raise and the acceleration of government capital repayment, KBC is taking substantial steps to fix its capital. Importantly, we see the progress on capital as the trigger for greater focus on the RoTE and free-cashflow generation of the core business. We believe the mid-teens RoTEs should drive a re-rating from today’s 0.9x TBV to somewhere closer to 1.5x, although recognising there are other worries beyond just capital (Ireland, NIMs, still  dominant core shareholding block). We remain Overweight KBC shares. »

Société Générale

« Moves to free KBC from state ownership are positive. However, this comes at a cost which is greater than we envisaged. Versus our previous expectation of a 9% Basel III CET1 requirement, we calculated that KBC could have repaid the Belgium state in full without any recourse to shareholders. However, the higher 10% capital requirement – compounded  by the requirement for it to be met by 1 January 2013 – meant a capital raising became necessary. Capitalising on a strong  share price is sensible, but following a recent treasury stock placement, this further 16% share count dilution limits further upside in our view. We expect KBC to take until H1 15 to complete state aid repayments. »

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