Les économistes de Bank of America Merrill Lynch usent de la litote pour évoquer les résultats des élections italiennes: « compliquée », à moins qu’en parlant de « messy results », ils veulent nous dire ô combien la situation est en fait, « bordélique »…
En résumé, la montée des partis « extrêmes » ou protestataires ne peut que déprimer le sentiment des investisseurs…:
« Centre left wins the Chamber, but the Senate is hung
With 99.9% of the votes counted, the centre-left coalition led by Bersani won the majority in the lower house, but only an estimated 120 seats in the Senate. The centre-right coalition led by Berlusconi won 29.18% of the votes in the lower house and 115 seats in the Senate. Neither can reach a majority with the meagre 16 Senate seats of Monti’s list. Five Stars is the real winner of these elections in our view, winning 25.54% of the national votes and 58 Senate seats.
Strong call for reform
In our view, the election outcome proves the electorate is strongly voicing a need for change to re-start economic growth, job creation and overall welfare. The detailed breakdown shows the centre left under-performed expectations, losing seven major and registering a narrow victory in many others. On the right side, the Northern League, Berlusconi’s ally, comes out significantly weakened in two of its three key regions: Piedmont and Veneto. The next government will likely have to deliver change or it may soon lose the mandate.
Five-Stars in government: unsettling
We have highlighted recently that the involvement of Five Stars is likely to raise investors’ concerns in the near term since the party has no track record: it is unclear how effective they will be in policy implementation, and whether they will be fragmented or not during votes; in our view, their pre-election policy statements have included both well thought reforms as well as highly unorthodox proposals (see 5-Stars in power: unsettling not disastrous).
Early elections are in the cards, but not a done deal
To us, these results confirm that both Berlusconi’s coalition and Five Stars have momentum. Neither party is too keen in a complicated coalition agreement and both of them have momentum, so they may be tempted by another round of elections soon to seal a clear victory. This in our view would be the worst potential outcome for market sentiment and the prospects for the economy. If Five Stars were to win, they would have a broad spectrum of ideas, but no experience in policy implementation. If Berlusconi’s coalition were to win, they would have the experience, but an insufficiently ambitious programme in our view (see An increasingly close call). However, in our view Five Stars may not want to rush into elections soon, but instead first deliver some results to consolidate support.
Five Stars and PD share policy priorities – watch this space
We believe that cooperation between these two parties is viable, since they share similar views on institutional reforms, public administration improvements and liberalisation measures. Initial comments from either side suggest negotiations may take place, but could be difficult in coming weeks. »