Le mois de février aura été plutôt décevant sur les marchés financiers, mais la hiérarchie des classes d’actifs n’a guère bougé: les actions (Japon, US, Monde, Europe) sont toujours devant le high yield US, les obligations émergents (en dollars) et les actions émergentes. L’or sous-performe (on reviendra sur ce sujet plus tard).
[cleeng_content id= »552891214″ description= »Plus d\’analyses à suivre » price= »0.19″ t= »article » referral= »0.05″]Le résumé du commentaire hebdo du Jan Loeys, responsable de l’allocation d’actifs mondiale de JPMorgan:
« The second month of the year is now in the bag, inducing us again to check how the strategy and views are working. Markets were effectively in a holding pattern with virtually no change in global equities and credit spreads, a slight rally in bonds (3bp fall in our GBI), but a 4% drop in global equities, and the decent rally in the US dollar against both DM and EM currencies. US assets outperformed the world, while EM assets broadly underperformed. Our 2013 global growth forecasts remain unchanged. After a strong start in January, our model portfolios eked out only a small gain in February.
The past month’s data overall confirmed the view that economic activity is rebounding. We keep a projection of a 2.4% global growth pace for both Q1 and calendar 2013, virtually unchanged from what we had a month ago. But the upside risk bias we signaled then still has to be acted upon as we have since seen a slight drop in the Global Manufacturing PMI (out this morning), a renewed US fiscal policy move to the dark side with full
sequestration spending cuts starting today, and Euro area data that disappointed. At the same time, the Japanese reflation trade appears to be gathering strength, with government proposing three reflationists – Kuroda, Iwata, and Nakaso – for the leadership of the BoJ, and activity data surprising nicely on the upside. We raise 2013 GDP growth from 0.5% to 1.0% for Japan.
Our bullish views and strategies on credit and equities have for long been based on the positive gap between high risk premia on these assets over safer ones, and the expected fading of tail risk perceptions on global economies and markets. This view was challenged this past month by renewed polarization in Washington, an anti-austerity vote in Italy and renewed Chinese tightening measures to contain house price inflation. In the event, these risk factors only stopped the global rally, and did not reverse it. We believe worse is needed to stop the rally and this is not currently in our forecasts.
A deepening of risks is not inconceivable, but likely requires a significant worsening in policy decisions and economic data than what we have seen so far and than we have reason to expect. Full US sequestration spending cuts are now a reality and should be in the price. We think a Congressional refusal to renew its Continuing Resolution expiring March 27, or to further lift or suspend the debt limit in May to July are very unlikely. The Italian elections should create more instability in Italy but are not sufficient to scupper the relative euro peace, in our view. And Chinese measures to contain real estate are more a local than global issue.
Risk has not disappeared from the world, but many of these events have stopped having a sustained global impact. We keep a long risk on global equities and credit, and position on local risk through country allocations, in discussed below and next week’s GMOS. »
La crème de la crème en vidéo: Worse is needed to reverse rally in risk, J.P. Morgan View[/cleeng_content]