La Bourse clémente malgré une saison des résultats plutôt médiocre

La saison des publications de résultats des entreprises européennes avance, et ne provoque ni un enthousiasme débordant, ni une déprime parmi les investisseurs. La Bourse fait même preuve d’une certaine clémence à l’égard de certaines entreprises ayant publié des résultats inférieurs aux attentes du marché, observent les stratégistes de Morgan Stanley.

Pour les résultats inférieurs aux attentes dans une proportion inférieure à 10%, le cours de Bourse des sociétés concernées affiche même une hausse dans les 3 jours suivant la publication.

Or, dans l’ensemble, les publications de résultats sont plutôt décevantes: sur la base des résultats hors éléments exceptionnels, 39% des entreprises ayant publié ont battu le consensus contre 35% qui ont fait moins bien, soit un écart de 4% de surprises favorables. Mais si l’on retraite ce chiffre des financières, 2% des entreprises ont fait moins bien que prévu.

[cleeng_content id= »202522690″ description= »Plus d\’analyses et de commentaires à découvrir…  » price= »0.19″ t= »article » referral= »0.05″]Le mouvement des révisions de résultats est donc toujours baissier, ce qui peut surprendre car dans l’ensemble, les Bourses européennes affichent plutôt de bonnes performances – même si cela s’est fait au prix d’un regain de volatilité ces dernières semaines. Sans l’intervention régulière des banquiers centraux, la situation des Bourses serait sans doute bien différente (plus préoccupante).

Voici ce qu’en disent les experts de Morgan Stanley:

« We have published the latest readings of the 4Q 2012 earnings season. So far we have tracked 441 companies or 53% of European market cap. Only 55%-60% of market cap report quarterly earnings data.
Earnings season has been lacklustre, with results posting a small beat
Looking at pre-exceptionals earnings, 39% of companies have beaten estimates, while 35% of companies have missed expectations, meaning a net 4% of companies have beaten expectations. However, excluding Financials, we’ve seen 2% more companies miss expectations than beat them. In a historical context, this is a below average earnings season (longterm average of 10%), despite the beat. In aggregate total earnings have missed by 2.8%, but excluding Financials, earnings have missed in aggregate by 0.6%. However the data is cut, this quarter has been a soft, but not disastrous earnings season given the weak European macro backdrop in 4Q.
Revenues have surprised on the upside, but margins have missed modestly
So far, 39% of companies have beaten sales estimates, whilst just 29% have missed, meaning a net positive surprise of 10%. On a weighted basis, total revenues have beaten by 1%. Margins have modestly missed expectations, however, with aggregate EBIT margins missing by some 54bp.
More sectors have reported earnings beats than misses so far this quarter
To date, companies in the Utilities, Industrials and Financials have seen among the highest proportion of earnings beats. So far, four sectors have seen net earnings misses – Materials, Telcos, IT and Staples. Most sectors have seen top-line beats – lead by Utilities and Telcos – while only Consumer Discretionary and Materials have reported net misses on revenues to date.
Market has reacted well to results – stocks missing earnings estimates by 10% or less have outperformed
As we show on page 7, on average, companies that have missed earnings expectations by between 0 -10% have actually outperformed the market in the following 3 days, and only those companies missing by 10% or more have underperformed post earnings. Across every metric that we track, there has been a positive skew in performance. Companies beating estimates have outperformed strongly, while those companies that have missed have not underperformed to the same degree.
Earnings revisions continue to weaken
From mid-November through to mid-January, the FY1 earnings revisions ratio improved strongly by 8%, from -11% to -3%. However, in the last few weeks, it has been noticeable that revisions have turned back down to -10.0% (after a modest improvement from -10.3% the week before. Telcos, Energy and Consumer Staples have seen the biggest fall in revisions in the last month, while Financials is the only sector to have seen an improvement in earnings revisions momentum. »

Source: Morgan Stanely

Source: Morgan Stanely[/cleeng_content]

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