L’année économique 2013 sera caractérisée par deux choses selon les économistes de Morgan Stanley: une reprise de l’activité globale vers un rythme de 4% au cours du second semestre, et la poursuite, voire l’intensification des politiques de soutien à l’activité de la part des banques centrales (aux Etats-Unis, le taux de chômage évoluera de manière irrégulière et ne tombera pas rapidement sous la barre des 7%).
[cleeng_content id= »955218888″ description= »Plus d\’analyses à suivre » price= »0.19″ t= »article » referral= »0.05″]Voici l’argumentaire un peu plus détaillé de Joachim Fels, économiste en chef de la banque.
« I like it when investors push back on my views, and they often do. It helps me understand where we differ, it makes me eager to corroborate the argument, and it induces me to reconsider the view if the pushback is compelling. Interestingly, I have received less pushback than usual on our Spring Global Macro Outlook published this past week, from the large number of readers who have read the report so far, from the more than 1,000 participants who dialled into our joint conference call with Vincent Reinhart, Elga Bartsch, Helen Qiao and Robert Feldman, from the many people who have watched our joint Global Strategy Forum video, or from the clients I’ve seen in one-on-one and group meetings in London in the past couple of days. I guess less pushback than usual means that most people agree with our key thesis and forecasts, and that this is a view that’s largely priced into markets. This in itself is useful information.
Just in case you missed the Spring Global Macro Outlook, our key thesis is that the global economy will move from twilight in 1H to daylight in 2H 2013, defined as around 4 percent global GDP growth, but central banks will nonetheless remain supportive or even ease policy further this year. The ‘twilight to daylight’ part of the thesis seems to be very widely accepted. Infact, several clients even think we may already have reached the ‘daylight’ in the US and question our view that, before we get to an inflection point in US growth around the middle of theyear, a soft patch still lies ahead in the near term (with US GDP growth falling to only 1 percent in 2Q from a revised 2.3 percent 1Q tracking estimate) in response to fiscal tightening and the rise in gasoline prices. While our US team acknowledges the strength of recent core retail sales and labour market data, we continue to look for some payback in the near term.
“Video: Spring Global Macro Outlook: From Twilight to Daylight” (Mar 13, 2013).
Regarding the second part of our thesis, namely that central banks will keep policy very supportive or even ease more this year, I’ve received a little more pushback. Some investors question whether the Fed will really keep buying bonds at the current $85 billion monthly clip until year-end if US GDP growth picks up to 2 ¾ percent during 2H and job creation accelerates.We think so because, as confidence in job prospects improves, labour force participation will likely increase causing the unemployment rate to move sideways rather than dropping rapidly to 7%. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will have an opportunity to comment on these issues at this coming Wednesday’s press conference following the FOMC meeting and the publication of a statement and the summary economic projections (SEP).
Obviously, a key ingredient in our call for further global monetary stimulus is further aggressiveaction by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to overcome deflation. Another hurdle in this direction was cleared late last week when Japan’s Diet approved Haruhiko Kuroda as BoJ Governor alongsidetwo new deputy governors. Mr. Kuroda has said he will do whatever it takesto bring inflation to the new 2 percent target. All eyes are now on the next scheduled policy board meeting on 3-4 April for an announcement of additional asset purchases, but we wouldn’t rule out an earlier extraordinary meeting already this month (see Quote of the Week below).
Meanwhile, Europe remains the wild card in our and most investors’ more upbeat view of the world. Recall that, as part of our new Spring Outlook, Elga Bartsch, Daniele Antonucci & team actually revised down their below-consensus growth forecast for the euro area yet again, with downgrades in Italy, France and the Netherlands and upgrades in Germany and Ireland. In fact, this weekend’s decision by the Eurogroup to slap a ‘stability levy’ on bank deposits in Cyprus as part of a bailout by international lenders adds a new uncertainty to the outlook for theeurozone. This is the first time in this crisis that bank depositors have been asked to contribute. True, without such a contribution, the bailout would not go through German parliament (which will have to vote on a Memorandum of Understanding between the Troika and Cyprus once that is agreed). However, despite the claims by European officials that this is a one-off special case and depositors in other countries would not be hit in future bailouts, I view this as a worrying precedent with potentially systemic consequences if depositors in other periphery countries fear a similar treatment in the future. ECB Board member Joerg Asmussen, who played a crucial role in the negotiations, is quoted in the Weekend FT as saying the ECB would closely monitor deposit flows including on an intraday basis for signs of a bank run. Our strategy and economics team will follow up shortly with a detailed assessment of the deal and its likely consequences — stay tuned. Nonetheless, have a good Sunday and all fingers crossed for whatmay become another very interesting week in the markets! »[/cleeng_content]