Goldman Sachs conserve une vue prudente sur l’industrie pétrolière européenne, au regard d’une croissance de la production d’hydrocarbures insuffisante, d’investissements de maintenance élevés et de rendements décroissants. Les résultats du secteur devraient se contracter à terme.
[cleeng_content id= »111130824″ description= »Plus d\’analyses à suivre » price= »0.19″ t= »article » referral= »0.05″] »Is there a possible solution to these challenges? Focus on high return projects, buybacks and per share growth
We believe the oil sector’s key challenge is that its aging legacy asset base requires an increasing amount of capex in order to slow decline rates. We estimate that 54% of the capex spent by the industry is in effect maintenance and simply slows decline rates to an average of 4%-5% from double-digit technical decline rates. We believe there is one strategy that companies could pursue to improve their investment cases: invest only in medium-/high-return projects (breakeven below US$90/bl), spend the rest of their cash on buybacks and focus on per share growth. In aggregate, we estimate that the result would be an improvement of growth rates from 0.6% pa to 1.5% pa, with Shell and TOTAL benefiting most from this shift.
Growth and flexibility: Who is changing for the better?
We have isolated eight metrics that we believe can help us to identify the leaders on industry positioning in the European integrated oils sector. These companies have, in our view, a strong exploration team, an attractive pipeline of projects in the development phase, and balance sheet flexibility. On these metrics, GALP and BG score best, followed by ENI and Statoil, while TOTAL and BP look poorly positioned.
BG and ENI (CL Buys) top picks on growth and value; OMV to Sell
We believe that ENI and BG benefit from an attractive mix of inexpensive valuation (on an NAV basis for BG), improving returns vs. the sector average and superior cash flow growth over the coming 2-3 years. TOTAL and Shell (both Sell) remain challenged, in our view. We downgrade OMV to Sell (from Neutral) as the company has re-rated vs. the sector despite continuing uncertainty over the Romanian tax regime after 2014. »[/cleeng_content]