Certains courtiers notent des résultats annuels en ligne ou légèrement supérieurs aux attentes (sauf pour le bénéfice par action et le dividende), mais la croissance d’Havas reste inférieur à ses principaux comparables boursiers.
[cleeng_content id= »814858578″ description= »Plus d\’analyses à suivre » price= »0.19″ t= »article » referral= »0.05″]Bank of America Merrill Lynch (« buy », 5,6€)
« 2012 EBIT of €240m was 1% ahead of consensus (€238m), given a 10bps improvement in the operating margin to 13.5% (cons margins flat y/y). Net income of €126m and EPS of €0.31 was c5% below consensus given a higher than expected tax rate of 29% (vs BofAML 27%). Havas already reported FY organic growth of 2.1% and revenues of €1778m (+8%).
Management suggested that organic growth in Jan/Feb (small months) was in line with the Q4 trend, up 1%, with Europe now positive (vs Q4 -3%) and growth in North America moderating (vs Q4 +6.5%). Q1 has the toughest comps of the year (+3.5% in 2012) and we leave our forecast of 1.7% unchanged (cons 2.5%). We see scope for 30bps margin expansion to 13.8% in 2013, supported by operational efficiencies (e.g. property, shared services, synergies from the integration of creative & media) and an improvement in the US. We leave our forecasts unchanged with a higher tax rate offset by FX (€/$) upgrades. »
Exane BNP Paribas (« outperform », 5,8€):
« While all EU agencies delivered margins in line with expectations, the underlying quality varied widely. This is because agencies can easily play with bonus pools (down at WPP) or restructuring (up but above the line at PUB, up and below the line at WPP). The quality of Havas’ results was somewhere in between: on the positive side, margins were delivered with higher bonuses, but once again the company has booked substantial ‘one-off costs’ below the line (EUR21m versus EUR23m in 2011, still equal to 120bp of margin). That said, a good part came from restructuring at Havas Media late in 2012, which should progressively help underlying margins to improve. »[/cleeng_content]