Barclays estime que les actions sont à privilégier, même si la classe d’actifs, après un bon début d’année, présente à court terme des risques de correction. Pour les stratégistes et responsables de la recherche la banque, l’environnement de politiques monétaires, de croissance modérée et de valorisation relativement attrayante par rapport aux obligations justifie le maintien d’une préférence en faveur de cette classe d’actifs.
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Au sein de la classe d’actifs, Barclays privilégie les actions des pays développés plutôt que les actions émergentes, en partie à cause de la situation dans le cycle économique et des différences de valorisation…
« Our preference for developed market equities over emerging market stocks is driven partly by cyclical factors and partly by valuation differences. The global economic recovery was led by the emerging market economies, and many are now facing capacity constraints that limit future growth potential: inflation concerns are preventing the central banks in India and Brazil from easing policy to help spur weak economies (policy risks in Brazil have even turned toward tightening), while in China authorities are focused on cooling the overheated housing market. Flows in emerging market equities have outpaced those into developed markets for years, but they have not been enough to prevent modest EM equity underperformance in the past two years. We expect this underperformance to continue, since we perceive the macro backdrop for many developed market economies to be improving relative to EM countries. The US and Japan are good examples, and we would maintain equity exposure in both countries. UK stocks are also appealing: while the economy has barely grown for more than a year, the currency is falling, the central bank seems inclined toward additional asset purchases, and the FTSE is heavily weighted toward companies that generate revenue abroad. We are cautious about taking much risk in Italy until the political landscape becomes clearer, but Spain looks cheap at a time when both competitiveness and financial conditions generally are improving. With attractive opportunities in much larger and more liquid advanced equity markets, why should investors turn to smaller, less liquid and less accessible EM bourses?
In fixed income, there are probably more opportunities in emerging markets than in developed markets, where yields are already at rock-bottom levels. However, yields in EM have moved considerably lower as well following the strong rally last year that delivered, for example, double-digit returns in EM credit. For 2013, we expect much lower EM debt returns: around 4% for hard currency bonds and 7% for local currency bonds. »
L’allocation d’actifs proposée par Barclays privilégie donc les actions (neutre US, sous-pondérer émergents, surpondérer UK, Europe et plutôt l’Espagne que l’Allemagne), ainsi qu’une surpondération des valeurs refuge (Bunds), ainsi que de la dette émergente russe.