LVMH: une décote de valorisation injustifiée selon Merrill Lynch

Pour Bank of America Merrill Lynch, LVHM affiche pour la première fois une décote de près de 10% par rapport à ses comparables boursiers, alors que le titre s’est toujours traité avec une prime de valorisation comprise entre 5% et 20%. Cette décote présente donc un point d’entrée dont les investisseurs peuvent profiter, estime la banque dans une note publiée ce matin.

L’argumentaire de BofAML est le suivant:

[cleeng_content id= »890609042″ description= »Plus d\’analyses et de commentaires à découvrir…  » price= »0.19″ t= »article » referral= »0.05″]Relèvement de l’avis à « achat » avec un objectif de cours de 150€. LVMH devrait enregistrer une accélération de sa croissance des ventes à partir du 2è trimestre 2013. Les qualités de certains actifs (Louis Vuitton) devraient alors réapparaître.

« Key market concerns factored in LVMH is down 7% year-to-date, underperforming sector average by 16ppts, of which 10ppts is due to multiples contraction, 5ppts to EPS cuts and only 1ppt to EPS growth differential vs. peer group average. LVMH is now expected to deliver 9% EBIT growth in 2013E and 10% in 2014E vs. 13% and 13.6% on average for the sector in 2013E and 2014E. The stock trades at an all-time-low 10% discount to sector peers, vs a 5%-20% premium historically. We remain bullish about the sector as a whole and expect relative valuation to improve as revenue momentum picks up in the coming quarters. Upgrading to Buy with a PO of €150.
Stock merits should resurface
We expect revenue momentum to pick-up as of Q2 and to grow double digit in H2. The group faces an easy comparison basis in terms of costs (operating expenses rose 19% last year) and we do not believe that H1 expectations are demanding (we expect 4% EBIT growth). Recent USD weakness and price hikes at Vuitton (8% in Europe, 12% in Japan) should help. Vuitton needs to keep sharpening its brand image but the transition towards leather is well engaged and canvas bags should benefit from the expansion of a middle class in China. After an accelerated penetration of Asian markets, we also expect the growth of smaller brands to normalize, and LV’s merits to resurface. LVMH should still benefit from economies of scale, production efficiency gains, a well-balanced geographical footprint and – macro environment permitting – from operating leverage.
Compelling entry point, PO of €150 (15% upside)
LVMH trades on 2013E and 2014E PE multiples of 17x and 15x vs. a historical normalised average of 19x, and has never been cheaper on a relative basis (10% discount to peers). It is the only stock in our peer group to trade below its longterm average of 2.7x on EV/Sales, despite consistent margin improvements over the years. Our new PO of €150 (€145 prev.) corresponds to an unchanged 12 months fwd target PE of 19x. »[/cleeng_content]

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