Alcatel-Lucent: Deutsche Bank conseille de jouer le redressement (encore)

Chez Alcatel-Lucent, la thématique du « retournement » est une seconde nature. Cela fait d’ailleurs le bonheur des brokers et des spéculateurs en tous genres. Deutsche Bank leur rend hommage ce matin en publiant une note assortie d’un relèvement de recommandation de « conserver » à « acheter », avec un objectif de cours de 1,8€.

[cleeng_content id= »223347574″ description= »Plus d\’analyses et de commentaires à découvrir…  » price= »0.19″ t= »article » referral= »0.05″]Pour la banque, les priorités stratégiques du nouveau directeur général, Michel Combes, sont claires: réduire les coûts et faire remonter le niveau des marges. Dans tous les cas, l’argument de Deutsche Bank est que le titre resterait bon marché.

« Ambitious 2015 margin targets…
Together with its recent loan issuance ALU initiated 2015 revenue and margin targets for the company. While the historic track record of ALU delivering on margin targets is poor, we believe at the current valuation the equity presents an opportunity in light of these targets. The main cornerstones of ALU’s 2015 targets are as follows:
-Revenues of ~E15bn with growth from ALU’s best-in-class IP/router portfolio (14% CAGR FY12-15) and optical (+6% CAGR FY12-15) and most other business flat/declining.
-Gross Margin recovery from ~30% in 2012 to a 35 – 37% range
-Opex of around E4.1bn
-All of the above translate into an EBIT margin of around 6 to 9%
…with Gross Margin recovery a key turnaround ingredient
We are laying out the reasons for our increasing confidence in revenue stability/improvement (assuming no sizeable asset sales) and opex cuts. This leaves product/gross margins as the main driver for operating margins going forward. ALU’s Gross Margins have declined from 35-36% in 2010/11 to ~30% in 2012 due to mix (more LTE coverage, decline in high-margin CDMA revenues). We believe these should improve and will benefit from the following drivers:
-ALU is restructuring/exiting unprofitable managed services contracts
-The company is aiming to improve Gross Margins with costcutting/restructuring of its manufacturing base.
-we laid out above that we expect LTE capacity additions in the US to be Gross Margin accretive over time.
Stock on 5-6x 2015 P/E even if margin targets are missed
Overall we are confident that the company should be able to achieve at least a 2-300bps GM improvement by 2015. Whether these drivers are sufficient to bring GM’s back to 35% or more remains to be seen at this stage.
However even if ALU missed its GM target range of 35-37% and ‘only’ achieved 33% margins (DBe base case) by 2015, the stock would trade on a very low 2015 P/E of 5-6x. If ALU managed to achieve the low end of its target GM range (35%) the stock would trade on 3.5x P/E, and on 2.5x P/E if it managed to achieve the high end of the GM range (37%). In essence, even if management missed the low end of its GM target, the stock would still be attractively valued. »

L’objectif de cours est un simple multiple de résultat: 10x le bénéfice par action en 2015 (0,18€)… Un modèle de valorisation par somme des parties aboutit au même résultat.

Source: Deutsche Bank

Source: Deutsche Bank

 

Pour aller plus loin, je renvoie au programme de 100 jours prévu par Morgan Stanley…[/cleeng_content]

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