Citi positif sur les actions européennes, voit le Stoxx à 330 fin 2013

Citi reste très bullish sur les actions européennes, malgré un regain de volatilité sur le premier trimestre et une hausse de 6% des indices boursiers depuis le début de l’année.

[cleeng_content id= »997054164″ description= »Plus d\’analyses et de commentaires à découvrir…  » price= »0.19″ t= »article » referral= »0.05″]La banque annonce un objectif de 330 points l’indice Stoxx 600 d’ici fin 2013 et de 345 points fin 2014. Elle recommande de renforcer l’exposition aux actions sur les mouvements de baisse de la Bourse.

Les principaux moteurs de performance à venir des actions sont les suivants:

  • le mouvement de révision en baisse des prévisions de résultats devrait s’arrêter vers la mi-2013;
  • les économistes ont arrêté d’abaisser leurs prévisions de croissance du PIB il y a quelques mois et l’activité devrait modestement reprendre au second semestre (même si cela concernera surtout les Etats-Unis);
  • les entreprises pourraient entreprendre des actions relutives sur les résultats (Citi vise +5% de croissance en top-down et +10% en bottom-up);
  • les ratios de valorisation sont raisonnables et ne deviendront chers que si les résultats et les dividendes devaient chuter fortement.

Citi recommande de privilégier les thèmes d’investissement suivants:

« Back the barbell — Our barbell approach attempts to address three things: 1) do not ignore elevated/extended macro risks, 2) do not believe this is a normal cycle, and 3) do believe that the policy put holds. The result, we believe, is balance. We look for a combination of defensive growth and ‘acceptable risk’. The former is one way of getting growth leadership in a low growth world. The latter is our attempt of getting exposure to cheap parts of the market which are not value traps, eg certain Banks/Insurers.
Income and FCF over DY — The search for yield is supported by a world of extraordinary policy support and ultra-low policy rates. But, high DYs are not necessarily enough in Europe. Investors need to focus on sustainable income. We would highlight some of our regular income strategies such as CDS-adjusted dividends and dividend diamonds. FCF cover is one of the main factors in our Sector Attribution Model and should be a key input in most investment strategies. Sectors such as Utilities, Oil and Autos score poorly here. Media, Health Care and Personal & Household Goods score well. Telecoms and Basic Resources have been recent improvers on this measure.
Back the arb — The gap between the cost of debt and equity funding is at multi-decade wides. This suggests a couple of things to us. First, CEOs have rarely seen a better time to raise money from the bond market, in terms of funding costs. This provides an opportunity and a challenge for corporates, ie what to do with this money? Second, this arbitrage presents a clear opportunity for a whole range of dynamic capital allocators beyond corporates such as private equity, multi-asset, SWFs, hedge funds, significant individuals. We think that this arb will close somewhat over the next couple of years, at least in part by equities getting re-rated.
Stick to GUNS and misnomers — There are some modest signs of improvement across the EA economy such as moves to current account surplus in some peripheral economies. But, progress is slow. Our economists see no quick turnaround in growth fortunes. Leadership from peripheral equity markets remains unlikely with this economic backdrop. We stick to the GUNS (Germany, UK, Netherlands, Switzerland & Scandi), but continue to see less country alpha in 2013 compared with the past couple of years. Within peripheral markets (and France), we would also stick to a misnomer strategy, ie companies with high international sales exposure and strong balance sheets.
Tech up, Retail down — Our European sector strategy remains relatively stable, based on our barbell approach. We stay Overweight Health Care, Food & Beverage, Media, Household & Personal Goods. These represent our defensive growth theme. Banks is our preferred value sector, backed by improving capital positions and restructuring. We raise Technology to Overweight. It also scores well as a defensive growth play with clear leverage to an improving global economy. Most of our Underweights have lagged so far this year and we stick with them. Telecoms is the exception, benefitting recently from potential corporate action as well as improvements in FCF metrics. In this report we lower Retail to  Underweight. While liking the global growth stocks in General Retail (i.e. Inditex), the overall Retail sector scores poorly on many of our metrics. »


Source: Citi

Source: Citi

L’étude de Citi comprend quelques graphiques intéressants, donc celui-ci sur les secteurs les plus recherchés par les investisseurs:

Source: Citi

Source: Citi

On observera que ce comportement des investisseurs est quelque-peu en contradiction avec le message envoyé il y a quelques mois, où ils indiquaient attendre des entreprises qu’elles investissent davantage.



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