Les actions japonaises sont surachetées – Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley estime que malgré les injections de liquidités de la Banque du Japon et l’affaiblissement programmé du yen, le potentiel de hausse des actions japonaises est plus limité – en gros, parier sur une poursuite de la hausse de la Bourse japonaise devient de plus en plus risqué, car les actions nipponnes sont déjà en territoire de surachat.

Source: Morgan Stanley

Source: Morgan Stanley

[cleeng_content id= »171306132″ description= »Plus d\’analyses et de commentaires à découvrir…  » price= »0.19″ t= »article » referral= »0.05″]Le commentaire approfondi des stratégistes de la banque (Jonathan Garner, Robert Alan Feldman, Le Ngoc Nhan, Calvin Tse):

« The risk / reward equation has started to deteriorate for Japan equities. Topix has traded up to within 10% of our scenario-weighted year-end 2013 Target Price of 1,270. We remain strategically bullish and expect further progress on the journey towards successful reflation and potentially a bull case scenario of Topix 1,700. However, our tactical concerns are the following:
1) Valuation deterioration. Absolute P/B is at 1.32x versus a trough of 0.88x, whilst relative P/B to DM is at 0.7x, already back to the 20-year average. Versus EM, Topix at its most expensive since 2002/2004.
2) Consensus earnings forecasts raised. Consensus for 2013E Topix EPS has now risen to +45% and has almost caught up with our +50% top-down forecast.
3) Currency has reached our near-term target. Yen / dollar has reached our near-term Q2 target of 100. Whilst we expect structural yen weakness over a
multi-year time frame, it is also notable that we forecast the pace of future yen declines to be much milder than witnessed over the past few months
4) Lack of further near-term catalyst post the BoJ. Further impact on the macro outlook from policy must come largely from “Third Arrow” (microeconomic reform) policies, which involve many more decision makers, require much more coordination, and often take much more time to implement and impact the economy.
5) Technically very overbought. Topix is more than 3 SDs overbought on a 200-day moving average basis (the most in 20 years). Two of our three preferred sectors (Financials and Consumer Discretionary) are the most overbought.
6) Bottom-up analyst upside. Average bottom-up upside to Target Price for the Morgan Stanley analyst-covered 50 largest cap names is now -6% »

Les différents scénarios de la banque pour l’indice TOPIX:

Source: Morgan Stanley

Source: Morgan Stanley

La liste des points à valider pour confirmer un scénario de hausse de la Bourse japonaise:

Source: Morgan Stanley

Source: Morgan Stanley

Et la liste des 50 premières capitalisations boursières japonaises suivies par la banque:

Source: Morgan Stanley

Source: Morgan Stanley

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