Saint-Gobain: Merrill voit le verre à moitié plein

Bank of America Merrill Lynch relève son avis sur Saint-Gobain à l’achat (contre sous-performance) avec un objectif de cours relevé de 24 à 36€.

[cleeng_content id= »149261491″ description= »Plus d\’analyses et de commentaires à découvrir…  » price= »0.19″ t= »article » referral= »0.05″] »Short term challenges priced in, medium term opportunity
We upgrade our rating to Buy from U/P and raise our PO to €36 from €24. After significant underperformance (-14% ytd relative to the sector) and large cuts to consensus estimates, we see the share as largely de-risked and a much more attractive risk reward. The short term news flow (Q1 sales on April 25th, H1 results on July 24th) are likely to be negative and could lead to incremental cuts to consensus estimates, but we believe this is fully discounted. We would view any short term weakness as an even more attractive buying opportunity in the current price. Our 2014-15 EPS estimates have been increased by 9% as we build a slightly more optimistic recovery scenario. We remain 14% below consensus but believe that the share is more correlated to its volume outlook than to the slowly moving consensus EPS estimates. »

La banque anticipe une stabilisation du secteur européen de la construction dans le courant du second semestre 2013, en particulier en France, après l’Allemagne et le Royaume-Uni.

Merrill Lynch estime en outre que le dividende est de meilleure qualité que celui de CRH, car couvert par des flux de trésorerie soutenables.

« Following the planned disposal of US packaging (€1bn cash inflow expected mid-2013), Saint-Gobain’s balance sheet appears strong enough to sustain the current dividend at €1.24.
We see the net debt to EBITDA at 1.7x at the end of 2013 (from 1.9x at the end of 2012) and FFO to net debt above 30%.
We believe the group might still be at risk to see its long term credit rating downgraded by one notch by S&P (BBB with a negative outlook) and Moody’s (Baa2 with a negative outlook), potentially on the basis of declining H1 results.
While this potential announcement would be perceived as a negative in the short term, we would highlight that: 1/ This is unlikely to be followed by incremental downgrades i.e. excluding extreme macro shocks, we do not expect Saint-Gobain to be rated below investment grade and 2/ This is unlikely to impact the group’s cost of debt (4.7% at the end of December 2012) or its cost of refinancing. »

Pour compléter l’analyse, voici le modèle de valorisation retenu par Merrill Lynch pour trouver l’objectif de cours de Saint-Gobain:

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

AVERTISSEMENT

L’auteur du post détient des titres Saint-Gobain en portefeuille.[/cleeng_content]

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