Barclays publie un pointage des résultats trimestriels de 39 sociétés composant l’indice Stoxx 600: sur les 31 sociétés ayant publié un chiffre d’affaires, 10 ont fait mieux que prévu et 11 moins bien. Et bizarrement, la Bourse a dans l’ensemble eu une réaction plutôt positive.
[cleeng_content id= »485771007″ description= »Plus d\’analyses et de commentaires à découvrir… » price= »0.19″ t= »article » referral= »0.05″]Au niveau des publications de résultats, la surprise médiane est de +1,9% avec 50% de résultats supérieurs aux attentes et 43% de résultats inférieurs.
« Results have generally underwhelmed: So far news has revolved around sales or production numbers as opposed to earnings. Of the 31 companies to have reported sales, ten have beaten and eleven have missed. With this in mind it is perhaps surprising that share prices in general have reacted positively. Only Consumer Discretionary and Materials stocks have underperformed materially on the day of results; our key UWs in these two sectors are Morrison and Kazakhmys.
US good, Europe bad: The most prominent theme is the diverging fortunes of Europe versus North America. Publicis, Akzo Nobel and Tesco explicitly mentioned softness in Europe but anecdotal commentary has been almost universally weak (although interestingly the inverse was true at SABMiller). Cold weather during much of the first quarter and the extra trading day last year due to the leap year are both having a noticeable impact on results. In Staples, our analysts rate Diageo, Pernod, Unilever and L’Oreal Overweight and would view any resultant weakness as a buying opportunity.
Unwilling to commit: It may be too early for many companies to set full year guidance and corporates are still wearing a cloak of uncertainty. Michael Page flagged that demand for temporary employment is running higher than for permanent workers. While there are many plausible explanations for this, one is a lack of visibility about future demand and an unwillingness to commit to permanent headcount. This resonates with the recent downward correction in the ZEW survey of financial investor expectations.
Margins, margins, margins: We’re on margin watch. Our strategists recently commented the next leg up in European Equity markets is predicated on an inflection in profit margins. Since we wrote our last Earnings Scorecard, 2013 EPS estimates have fallen a further 1.1%. Materials (-3.8%) and Autos (-2.4%) have seen the greatest downgrades, while Media (+1.1%) is the only sector with material upgrades. In particular we’re keeping a keen eye on EPS versus sales beats as an early indicator for the direction of consensus margin estimates.
A few thoughts from across the pond: The US earnings season is further along than in Europe. Of the 43 S&P 500 companies already to have reported, 40% have beaten EPS expectations against only 16% misses. However, share price reactions have been poor, down 27bps on average. The reaction in Capital Goods (-290bps) has been particularly so. This corroborates evidence discussed in a recent note from our US analysts who highlight how optimistic investors have got in that sector. »