Morgan Stanley recommande d’attendre la fin du 2ème trimestre pour accroître le niveau de risque des portefeuilles, en s’exposant plus sensiblement aux actions (secteurs à béta élevé, actions US exposées à la croissance mondiale et actions émergentes notamment).
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« We expect the MSCI World equity index to break the three-year pattern of a double-digit correction beginning in 2Q. The reason is the biggest difference from the past three years: central banks are maintaining highly accommodative monetary policy. We believe the slowing growth that has triggered the recent market weakness is likely to be a “soft patch” that is over by 2H13. Moreover, markets were already pricing in slower growth: high-beta sectors, US stocks levered to global growth, and EM equities have underperformed relative to high- quality defensive stocks.
We expect any correction to be a “pause that refreshes,” but would wait until later in 2Q to add beta risk. More clarity on the extent of the growth soft patch and the policy response in China is necessary before we turn more constructive. However, a risk correction is likely to be less extreme and systemic than in past few years. Instead, differentiation across markets and asset classes should continue, keeping the emphasis on alpha over beta.
We continue to favor equities over credit and bonds. The liquidity-induced reflation trade should continue to favor high-quality income-oriented stocks, though we see modest upside over the next two quarters. We expect rates to stay low for a long time, but after they fell this past month and the G3 yield curves flattened, the risk-skew has shifted negatively for core rates. Within equities, Japan remains our top choice, but the risk-reward has deteriorated. Strategically, AxJ equities are attractive, but we would wait for clarity on China to add risk. We are less bearish on JPY, as it’s now close to our FX strategists’ YE target of 105. »
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