Le risque de retour de papier sur EADS est en train de disparaître de l’écran radar des investisseurs, affirme RBC dans une note publiée aujourd’hui. La banque canadienne estime que le marché va désormais focaliser son attention sur les fondamentaux du groupe, et notamment sur les programmes d’Airbus (A350 en tête), ainsi que sur les annonces de prises de commandes lors du salon du Bourget, en juin. Elle relève son avis sur le titre à « Surperformance », et un objectif de cours relevé de 43 à 45€.
[cleeng_content id= »574256511″ description= »Plus d\’analyses et de commentaires à découvrir… » price= »0.19″ t= »article » referral= »0.05″] »Farewell Lagardere and Daimler
Both strategic shareholders have sold down their respective c.7.4% stakes. This is in addition to the c.5% that Daimler sold down last December and another ~1.5% from the Spanish state, so in all the free float is up from ~49% in December 2012 to 70%+. We view the consummation of the larger free float as a long-term benefit.
Still buyback potential
Having already spent ~€1.6bn on buying out strategic stakes EADS has committed to purchasing another 43m shares through this summer. We estimate that all these share movements mean the sharecount will be down by 7% in H1 2013 (out of a 15% buyback programme) at a cash cost of ~€3.3bn (out of a cash ceiling of €3.75bn). We have built in the full €3.75bn being hit by the end of 2013, taking the share count down by ~8.5% YoY. After 2013 we are modeling further repurchasing at ~80% of post-divi free cash flow (RBC-defined).
All eyes on A350
We see investor attention going back to commercial aircraft programmes where the A350 will be in full focus. Whilst Airbus has said a Paris Airshow first flight is not likely, we have not heard anything in the supply base to suggest that the summertime first flight is off track. We are also impressed with how Airbus has continually warned about A350 risk and appears to be taking its time, thus we are willing to increase our Airbus multiple. We also think that with homefield advantage in Paris we could see a decent order.
EPS and target price update
Our combined 2013-15 EPS is down 2% as we adjust for the buyback events and factor in the new $1bn in debt. On valuation we are increasing our Airbus target multiple from 13x to 14x in our sum-of-the-parts – a c.10% discount to Boeing Commercial. We arrive at a 12.9x target multiple, which to us looks fair given where we are in the aero cycle with A350 risk ahead.
Time to step back in
The secondary shuffle is re-done so we are comfortable again with EADS as an A&D stock, rather than event driven. The A350 will continue to be the swing factor for EADS, but with 20%+ EPS CAGR for the next few years we see decent upside from here. »[/cleeng_content]