Qui équipe ma voiture ?

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Bank of America Merrill Lynch publie depuis quelques années une analyse très poussée des composants (coûts, fournisseurs) entrant dans la ligne d’assemblage d’une voiture particulière en Amérique du Nord. La dernière édition de cette étude, publiée la semaine dernière, estime à 14,050$ par véhicule la valeur de ces équipements, soit une croissance de 2% par an entre 2000 et 2012.[cleeng_content id= »961359687″ description= »Plus d\’analyses et de commentaires à découvrir…  » price= »0.19″ t= »article » referral= »0.05″]

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

L’analyse de BofAML montre que la majorité des composants provient d’équipementiers nord-américains (44%) et européens (38%), ces derniers ayant capté une part de marché importante au fil des ans.

L’industrie des équipementiers semble se porter mieux, si l’on en croit Merrill Lynch:

« Results across the auto value chain have been fairly robust over the past couple of years, driven by both top line strength and improving margins. While we expect incremental margins to return to more normal historical levels, we believe revenue growth and a continued focus on controllable costs will allow companies to maintain solid levels of profitability and cash flow, and continue to return value to shareholders. This will likely be a key driver for automotive stocks in the future. »

Dans une industrie en recomposition permanente, et très dépendante du cycle économique, les gagnats seront les entreprises diversifiées (en termes de clients et de zones géographiques), recentrées et disposant d’une avance technologique, selon la banque américaine:

« Our analysis of the global supplier industry suggests there is opportunity for growth, profits, and returns in the $1.1 trillion auto supplier industry. Vehicle production is still the key driver of supplier revenue, but favorable trends in global expansion, content growth, consolidation, and OEM outsourcing should support increases in the value of the global component system market in the long run.
In particular, three component systems have the most attractive growth profiles based on a combination of increasing content, relatively low levels of outsourcing, and potential for consolidation, in our view (Table 2). These three systems are the engine, transmission, and electronics.
For suppliers in general, the rationalization phase has morphed into recovery with consolidation continuing.
The current debate among investors is increasingly focused on five key fundamental factors: 1) How severe the European volume decline will be and when bottom will be reached; 2) normalizing incremental margins; 3) raw materials; 4) is the current industry discipline structural; 5) how value will continue to be returned to shareholders. Over the past few years, volume and operating leverage have offset raw material cost increases, and will likely continue to help in 2013, although margin expansion will probably slow. Additionally, in the longer term, raw materials costs and OEM price downs will likely keep margins from going to the moon.
Large, diversified (by geography and customer), focused (by segment), technologically advanced, and financially sound Tier 1 suppliers will be the winners, in our opinion, as OEMs look for strong partners to supply their global platforms. »

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

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