Asian countries could be the main beneficiaries over the long run, according to a Nomura report.
Growing lifestyle spending in China will fuel growth in outbound tourism, estimates the Japanese bank in a report dated 7 April 2016. The bank forecast an 8% growth per year between 2016 and 2020.
But the destinations favored by Chinese tourist should evolve with time : Hong Kong may lose some market share, while Japan and Korea would gain. ASEAN countries might see a moderation in Chinese tourism growth.
One reason HK may lose market share is that Chinese tourists « are shifting away from shopping trips and focuse more on leisure and eye-opening experiences when they are travelling abroad », says Nomura.
« The shift away from pure shopping trips will have the largest impact on Hong Kong, as the city attracts tourists mainly via its tax-free shopping environment. Chinese tourists spend 70% of their budget on shopping in Hong Kong, vs 50% when they are travelling in Japan and Australia. The strong shopping focus also makes the city susceptible to RMB declines, which would narrow the pricing differential between goods sold in China and Hong Kong, and subsequently reduces Chinese tourists’ incentive to travel to Hong Kong. »
According to the bank’s estimates, a trip to Asia costs between 4.000 and 9.000 RMB per person, with the most expensive destinations being Osaka, Tokyo, Singapore and Seoul.
Between 2005 and 2015, the share of Japan, Korea and ASEAN countries as a favorite destination for Chinese tourists has increased from 11% to 20% and it should climb up to 28% in 2020, Nomura estimates.
The cost of travelling has been lowered thanks to the emergence of online travel services such as AirBnB, MaFengWo and Qyer.
Those services make it easier for Chinese to find a destination, book a room at an affordable price.