French Elections: Macron Wins. It’s All Good?

SocGen’s view on Macron’s win last night, in a nutshell:

« What next? Newly elected President Macron is set to shortly appoint a PM and an interim government. Attention will now turn to the legislative election on 11 and 18 June.

Rates: EGB spreads are collapsing, more because of a desperate search for yield with few near-term risks, rather than any election relief per se. Bunds are exposed as tail risk falls.

FX: We see limited upside just now for EUR/USD, given the overshooting vs rates and the risk of profit taking. EUR/JPY should gain, HUF and PLN should gain more.

Credit: Markets may tighten still after the final vote of the French presidential election. Nonetheless, thoughts should quickly turn to whether CSPP can end soon.

Equity: Macron winning the election was expected and so mostly priced in. Eurozone markets should outperform: we favour our long-term calls on Italy (FTSE MIB) and Banks (SX7E).

Equity derivatives: Equity vol collapsed after the first round, and we see little scope for lower moves. The focus should shift quickly to the general elections and then to the German election.

Technicals: CAC40 on the verge of confirming a paradigm shift. »