We’ve started receiving outlooks for 2018 and there seem to be some dispersion in brokers’ expectations. Continuer la lecture de « 2018 is going to be very interesting »
Over the last 8-9 years, financial assets have had a good run, but now valuations look stretch and expected real returns are low. Continuer la lecture de « Where is the Cycle? What Should My Asset Allocation Look Like? »
For a Monday morning, Kepler Cheuvreux’s strategist Christopher Potts had a nice wake-up call for investors, recommending them to Underweight Europe and EM and go Overweight US and Japan… Continuer la lecture de « Sell When You Can – Kepler Cheuvreux »
Getting a decent return from a diversified portfolio is getting more difficult by the year. According to Morgan Stanley’s calculations, « a traditional 60/40 equity/bond USD portfolio will see 4.2% per annum over the next decade, while the same in EUR fares only slightly better at 4.7%, and GBP at 4.9%; only the JPY 60/40 portfolio sees above-average expected returns, driven by elevated equity risk premiums. »
The laggard argument to reposition part of asset allocation to Malaysia might be a mistake, according to HSBC’s strategists. Investors should actually be looking at more fundamental drivers to reconsider their exposure to the Asian economy, such a rising commodity prices, increased China investments in the region and political upside risk.
After the Brits, the French are making the headlines, not for the best. The market is slowly pricing the possibility that a far-right movement (Front National) might win at the next presidential election.
The risk here is that such a vote might provoke a sharp market correction that could have global ripple effects, since France is the 2nd largest economy of the eurozone and has been at the core of the European project since the 50s – something the Front National is openly questioning by promoting the « Frexit ».
According to SocGen’s strategy team, this is how the French market might react if French government yield were to rise slightly:
Short answer: lower returns.