Markets have been unnerved by rising interest rates in the US, with ripple effects around the world. The most staggering event has happened on the VIX market with a number of funds/ETNs making the headlines after having lost tons of money. What should investors take from these events ? A couple of reflections and interesting comments seen here and there. Continuer la lecture de « Putting Recent Market Sell-off in Perspective »
« The S&P 500 has entered the longest period since 1929 without a correction of more than 5%. » While this might entail a sigh of admiration to many investors, this kind of observation (per Goldman Sach’s report published today by their equity strategy team, entitled « Correction Detection; the risks of a drawdown within a bull market ») is a source of worry to us.
JPMorgan’s equity strategist team has published a report today trying to figure out if European stocks will finally break out the glassdoor of 400 points (for Stoxx Europe 600) that they have been hitting 3 times already (2000, 2007, 2015).
They argue that this time might be the time, IF a number of conditions are successfully met. Among them, earnings recovery, operating leverage, decent (!) valuations and direction of bond yields are important factors to consider. Big swing factor are FX.
Howard Marks published a new memo dated Jan 23 and there are some interesting remarks regarding the current environment. Continuer la lecture de « Howard Marks: Price And Value Are Still The Name Of The Game »
Nomura expects Malaysia equities to return 4% in 2018 and says stock picking will be of the utmost importance to outperform.
The positive view from the broker stems from a number of factors, listed in a report dated Jan 22: « 1) solid macro and consumption growth, 2) continuing foreign inflows amidst positive revisions, 3) better corporate balance sheets with dividend upside, 4) possible election rally, 5) likely net buying by local institutions, 6) Malaysia’s laggard performance vs peers, 7) key concerns on banks getting addressed, 8) an appreciation MYR. »
The brokers set a 2018 year end target of 1,900 points for KLCI index.
Per SocGen’s research, here are some facts on their tracking on inflation/deflation newsflow.
Inflation will probably be one of the key stories in 2018 and the source of market volatility so this is something you want to track closely.
If you don’t know Greenlight Capital and its founder David Einhorn, you can watch the following video where he presents his investment style. He really his a brilliant mind in investing, someone you should listen to. A younger Warren Buffett of some sort 🙂
h/t to Value Investing World for spotting it.