2017 has been a pretty good year for credit investors so far, and this might continue providing inflation doesn’t accelerate too much, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch credit strategists. Continuer la lecture de « Credit : Merrill Lynch cautiously optimistic for 2018 »
Per Bank of America Merrill Lynch report published Nov 21:
« Altice shares have lost 50% of their value post results, while the CDS on the holding have increased by 300bps. Management took action with: 1/ the resignation of the CEO and the return of Patrick Drahi to full control of operations, 2/ admission of poor execution in France, now the #1 focus, and 3/ a priority on debt reduction, involving noncore assets and towers disposals. However, ATC also significantly rebased its midterm expectations on France. Although the steps taken should comfort credit holders, we think the case for the equity is balanced, with long term upside on execution, content monetization and domestic consolidation, but unclear valuation support on our reduced forecasts, and a recovery that remains largely dependent on external competitive forces. Unlike Glencore in 2015, we don’t see material valueenhancing options to drive mid term outperformance and downgrade to Neutral with a PO of €11. Our credit analyst Nick MacDonald is positive on the credit »
And leverage has been building up since the global financial crisis, contrary to most belief. So if you think the streak of bad luck Altice has been facing recently is just a one-off, think again. Continuer la lecture de « Leverage Sets the Stage for the Next Crisis »
Why is it important and can one estimate it ? Continuer la lecture de « What’s an Economic Moat? »
For the first time since 2010, world economic growth is surprising to the upside and its strength should continue according to GS’s chief economist Jon Hatzius.
2017 has been good for US equities, but most of the performance is related to the technology sector… Valuation are stretched but could continue to be so for a while, as long as macro/monetary backdrop is supportive.
From Barclays US Equity Strat team: Continuer la lecture de « US Equities: The Cycle Is Still Well Oriented – Barclays »
We’ve started receiving outlooks for 2018 and there seem to be some dispersion in brokers’ expectations. Continuer la lecture de « 2018 is going to be very interesting »