Oil: the Search of a New Equilibrium Continues – Goldman Sachs

In short, Goldman sees oil market equilibrium back around 2016, since the main adjustment course will come from capital. Warns of « high yield defaults potentially beginning if prices were maintained at $40/bbl ». Sees US supply growth slowing to 400k b/d yoy in 4Q15.

BUT, as GS puts it: « To keep all capital sidelined and curtail investment in shale until the market has rebalanced, we believe prices need to stay lower for longer. » That’s a warning.

Now sees marginal cost  at $65/bbl for WTI and $80/bbl for Brent. Lire la suite