Nomura sees Nikkei 225 at 20,500-21,000 end-2017

Recovery in earnings, a lower yen, a relatively attractive valuation ratios, favorable technicals (higher demand for Japanese equities), continued support from BoJ, a rebound from capex and high cash distribution potential might be the main driver of a pursuit of the rebound in Japanese equities in 2017, according to Matsuura Hisao, Nomura’s chief strategist. Lire la suite

Overall, falling oil prices are good news for European earnings

Say Morgan Stanley’s European equity strategists:

« We believe the fall in the oil price is set to translate into a significant boost for European corporate earnings. Energy accounts for around 10% of European earnings – and historical precedent suggest a 50% drop in the oil price should lead to a 25% fall in energy EPS. Earnings for chemicals, utilities and mining, which together account for a further 10% of European earnings, should also experience a net negative impact from lower oil prices. However, the remaining 80% of European corporate earnings should see a net boost of around 13% on our estimates, as lower material costs lead to higher gross margins. In aggregate, we estimate that even on conservative assumptions a 50% drop in the oil price should translate into a net boost of around 7% to European market-level EPS. »

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Big Picture: earnings consensus figures in the world

Thanks to Deutsche Bank, this single page sums up the consensus view on equity markets around the world: what are the expectations for 2014 -> 2016, what were the revision rates by region/market/sector.

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Earnings Surprise Candidates in Europe – Citi

Source: Citi

Source: Citi

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