Deutsche Bank’s strategist team published a report to figure out what’s currently priced in by financial markets after the bout of volatility. Rising real yields are a clear threat to the rebound in equity market. But having recently talked to fund managers in other asset classes, real yields are a threat to many asset classes where lots of money have flown other the last years (EM debt for instance).
Here’s DB’s take on European equities:
3 out of 10 companies had reported 4Q earnings at the end of last week. On average, 51% beat EPS expectations and 47% did better on sales expectations.
JPMorgan’s equity strategist team has published a report today trying to figure out if European stocks will finally break out the glassdoor of 400 points (for Stoxx Europe 600) that they have been hitting 3 times already (2000, 2007, 2015).
They argue that this time might be the time, IF a number of conditions are successfully met. Among them, earnings recovery, operating leverage, decent (!) valuations and direction of bond yields are important factors to consider. Big swing factor are FX.
Per SocGen’s research, here are some facts on their tracking on inflation/deflation newsflow.
Inflation will probably be one of the key stories in 2018 and the source of market volatility so this is something you want to track closely.
Kepler thinks Altice split between US and European assets is not a zero-sum game for investors. Continuer la lecture de « Kepler Skeptical on Altice Plan – Downgrades to Sell »
Rule of thumb: the more expensive a financial asset is, the lower its prospective return. That’s simple. But sentiment and markets can become and stay irrational longer than investors can stay solvant, they say. So if you cannot predict when the markets will turn, it’s probably better to check where the risks are and monitor them the best you can. And invest with a margin of safety. Always…
Unibail Rodamco (UL) announced a friendly takeover offer for Australia-based Westfield (WFD) in a deal that values the Australian mall operator at c$25 bn (on EV basis).
Interestingly, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has analysts covering both companies. Following the transaction, the team covering UL has maintained its Buy rating while the one covering Westfield has moved to « Not Rated », arguing that « WFD is no longer trading on the basis of fundamentals. » Continuer la lecture de « Unibail Rodamco-Westfield: 2 Views from the same Broker »
Supportive macro backdrop so far makes the case for investing in risky assets, but valuation-wise, harvesting decent returns on a risk-adjusted basis is harder. At least, that’s BofAML’s strategists views.
Despite tight or reasonable valuation, equities still make sense for JPMorgan.
Goldman recommends investors to « remain pro-risk » going into 2018, meaning overweight equities, be neutral on credit and underweight bonds. Continuer la lecture de « Remain Pro-Risk – Goldman Sachs »
Altran Technologies has decided to be bold, both in strategic and financial terms. The engineering services company has agreed to pay $2 bn for Aricent (a US-based rival owned by private equity firms KKR, Sequoia Capital and a former unit of Flextronics), valuing the company twice as much in terms on EV/Sales ratio based on LTM numbers. Continuer la lecture de « Altran: American Dream »
In its « Risk Reversal » Europe 2018 outlook report, Exane BNP Paribas recommends to keep a value bias and prefer Oil & Gas, Travel & Leisure, Healthcare, Telecoms, Banks and Insurance sectors. Continuer la lecture de « In 2018, Stay Away from Cyclicals – Exane »
Societe Generale‘s CEO Frederic Oudea did not impress the markets with his 2020 strategic plan. Shares only gained 0.3% on Nov 28. Continuer la lecture de « Societe Generale: Market Not Impressed By Strategic Plan »
MSCI Europe has 6% left to rise next year, according to Morgan Stanley’s equity strategists for Europe. That forecast is based on a 9% EPS growth, thanks to better GDP numbers and oil price forecasts, according to a report date Nov 26.
Company Name : Experian Plc
Nb of shares : 924.2m
Last close : GBP15.52
Market Cap : GBP14.3 bn
Sector : Business Services (information services) Continuer la lecture de « Focus/Stock: Experian Plc »
2 useful tables from Deutsche Bank that give a view on fundamental trends and valuation ratios for several market places + a deep dive into European markets (geographies/sectors/size).
The bank expects the Stoxx Europe 600 to be about flat over 2018, before contracting by 19.5% in 2019, in part due to the anticipation of a US slowdown by 2020. By 2 years time, the European market should endure a krach. Continuer la lecture de « SocGen Bearish On European Equities Going Into 2019… »
Per Nick Nelson’s report date Nov 13:
« We recalibrate our top-down earnings model as it had been persistently underestimating the turn in operational leverage. We now see 10% EPS growth in 2018. Consensus estimates are 8.9%, but adjusting for the average upward bias, underlying « true » consensus may be as low as c.2%. We see modest P/E re-rating to 15.7x from 15.0x currently. For the FTSE 100, we are more conservative and target 7,900 end-2018 (c.6% upside). »
« Upside risks: Equities re-rate to previous cycle peak valuations. This would point to c.33% upside from the current levels. European corporates re-gear to US levels. US investors return (net buying peaked in May). European M&A picks up, currently running c.30% below the US. Effective French labour market reform. »
« Downside Risks: Rates and bond yields rise too sharply. But a gradual move would likely be manageable – Europe has very little Tech (6% of index) and a large amount of positively rate sensitive Financials (c.25% of index). Significant Euro strength, on our forecasts (EUR/USD 1.25 end 2018) this is manageable. Higher volatility / political risks in Spain and Italy. »
2017 has been a pretty good year for credit investors so far, and this might continue providing inflation doesn’t accelerate too much, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch credit strategists. Continuer la lecture de « Credit : Merrill Lynch cautiously optimistic for 2018 »
Over the last 8-9 years, financial assets have had a good run, but now valuations look stretch and expected real returns are low. Continuer la lecture de « Where is the Cycle? What Should My Asset Allocation Look Like? »
For a Monday morning, Kepler Cheuvreux’s strategist Christopher Potts had a nice wake-up call for investors, recommending them to Underweight Europe and EM and go Overweight US and Japan… Continuer la lecture de « Sell When You Can – Kepler Cheuvreux »
Risk assets keep attracting money and it’s getting even better when compared to last year. HSBC published a report on fund flows to asset classes. Equities are getting inflows so far this year compared with outflows last year.
European equities are taking advantage of this positive trend, which is a good news and bring another supportive factor to rising equity markets.
« House’s view: don’t miss inflation »
Investors hold firm to their Eurozone equities despite growing worries about the outcome of the French presidential election, according to the latest poll on investor positioning published by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Investors consider a « Le Pen Win » might produce a 5-10% market correction, but the real risk would be a Europe disintegration in the case of « Frexit », which would have deeper and far more negative implications.
This charts illustrates equity drawdowns over history in the US, Japan and Europe.