Alexandre Bompard, the young and alert new CEO of troubled French retailer Carrefour, will soon have a chance to show if he can thwart this priceless but nonetheless true observation from Warren Buffett:
« When a management team with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact. »
Continuer la lecture de « Carrefour, Bompard and the Reputation of Management vs Business »
Societe Generale‘s CEO Frederic Oudea did not impress the markets with his 2020 strategic plan. Shares only gained 0.3% on Nov 28. Continuer la lecture de « Societe Generale: Market Not Impressed By Strategic Plan »
This is a bit « old » (Sept 19, 2017), but Goldman published a series of research papers on 5 European countries (France, UK, Germany, Italy, Spain) where they have a broad look at the economy and have a couple of CEOs and their own analysts/economists comment on the trends in macro/business.
Continuer la lecture de « Vital Stats on the French Equity Market – Goldman »
« En Marche! », that’s an easy catch for brokers and a good way to have investors be more pro-risk in their asset allocation now that the political landscape has cleared for the best, thanks to Macron’s win at the French presidential election…
Continuer la lecture de « Market Relief After Macron Wins French Presidential Election »
SocGen’s view on Macron’s win last night, in a nutshell:
What next? Newly elected President Macron is set to shortly appoint a PM and an interim government. Attention will now turn to the legislative election on 11 and 18 June.
Rates: EGB spreads are collapsing, more because of a desperate search for yield with few near-term risks, rather than any election relief per se. Bunds are exposed as tail risk falls.
FX: We see limited upside just now for EUR/USD, given the overshooting vs rates and the risk of profit taking. EUR/JPY should gain, HUF and PLN should gain more.
Credit: Markets may tighten still after the final vote of the French presidential election. Nonetheless, thoughts should quickly turn to whether CSPP can end soon.
Equity: Macron winning the election was expected and so mostly priced in. Eurozone markets should outperform: we favour our long-term calls on Italy (FTSE MIB) and Banks (SX7E).
Equity derivatives: Equity vol collapsed after the first round, and we see little scope for lower moves. The focus should shift quickly to the general elections and then to the German election.
Technicals: CAC40 on the verge of confirming a paradigm shift. »
What would happen in the event of an unexpected French presidential race outcome (Le Pen/Melenchon in the 2nd round of the election) ? Nothing good, according to many market observers.
Citi has been trying to figure out what this would mean for financial markets. No surprise there, the unexpected outcome might be bad.
Continuer la lecture de « French Elections, Global Implications – Citi »