Animal Spirits in Advanced Economies… from Citi

Source: Citi

Consumer in many developed countries have played a major role sustaining growth, and the current environment seems to be still supportive. The good news, if we rely on the above chart from Citi, is that business confidence seems to be catching up.

According to Citi, those « are consistent with average AE (« Advanced Economies ») real GDP growth of 2.2. (SAAR) in Q4 and 2.1% in Q1″, they wrote in a Jan 9 note.

Key question they caution is: « whether confidence can be maintained or even rise further — There are plenty of downside risks, including potential disappointment by slower-or-lower-than-expected fiscal easing, tightening monetary conditions, China, geopolitical risks and an increase in protectionism. »

Has peak trade been reached ?

Since the global financial crisis (GFC), a number of trends have been worrying investors : aging demographics in both developed and emerging countries, increase of income inequality, decline in productivity growth, lack of investment from the corporate sector, and the slowdown of global trade.

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A more favorable backdrop for risk assets – Barclays

On the back of slightly better global growth in 2015 and most importantly accommodative monetary policies, risk assets should prevail next year, says Barclays in its freshly published outlook. Attached is the summary per asset class, and some key introductory remarks to this 168 page document distributed to investors and clients. Enjoy!

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Récession: après l’Europe, les Etats-Unis

On sait déjà que l’Europe est probablement en récession. Mais quid des Etats-Unis? Dans leur note sur les actions européennes pour 2012, les stratégistes de Bank of America Merrill Lynch observent:

« What gives us some pause for concern is that the OECD LEI itself is now at a level which has always signalled a recession in the US in using data going back 50 years. »

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