Per SocGen’s real good quant team led by Andrew Lapthorne, « the use of the ‘Fear Index’ (VIX) as a predictor of future market performance has been rather mixed, with moves in VIX appearing more contemporaneous than forward looking. »
Well if VIX is not a great predictor of market returns what is ?
After the Brits, the French are making the headlines, not for the best. The market is slowly pricing the possibility that a far-right movement (Front National) might win at the next presidential election.
The risk here is that such a vote might provoke a sharp market correction that could have global ripple effects, since France is the 2nd largest economy of the eurozone and has been at the core of the European project since the 50s – something the Front National is openly questioning by promoting the « Frexit ».
According to SocGen’s strategy team, this is how the French market might react if French government yield were to rise slightly: